As Nigeria moves closer to its 2015 elections, there are concerns that the elections, like the previous ones, will be marred by violence. This article examines why elections are usually volatile in Nigeria, the main sources of apprehensions regarding the 2015 elections, the key issues that might define the elections, factors that might mitigate the outbreak of violence, and the national and regional fallout that can be expected.
The high level of success of Nigeria's 2015 general elections was unexpected, considering the difficult political and security environment in which the elections were conducted. The major obstacles to the smooth conduct of the elections include the grave security threat posed by the Boko Haram insurgency, the competing claims to the presidency by northern and southern politicians, a keenly contested campaign smeared by inflammatory messages, and serious gaps in electoral preparations. Against the backdrop of these challenges, this article assesses Nigeria's 2015 general elections, looking closely at the key issues that affected the polls, the major electoral outcomes, and the critical post-election issues raised by the outcomes.
The aim of this article is to explain variations in losers' behaviour after the 2007 elections in Nigeria and Kenya. It analyzes the conditions that made it possible for violent post-election protests to occur in Kenya and not in Nigeria. The main question the article addresses is why the losers in Nigeria chose to peacefully protest the 2007 election results while the losers in Kenya protested violently. This article adopts a methodology involving analysis of documents, including published literature, official documents, and media reports. It argues that violent post-election protests occurred in Kenya, and not in Nigeria, because of the higher political salience of ethnicity, the stronger elite-mass linkage, and the winner-loser power parity in Kenya.
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