Nigeria's 2015 Election in Perspective

Abstract

As Nigeria moves closer to its 2015 elections, there are concerns that the elections, like the previous ones, will be marred by violence. This article examines why elections are usually volatile in Nigeria, the main sources of apprehensions regarding the 2015 elections, the key issues that might define the elections, factors that might mitigate the outbreak of violence, and the national and regional fallout that can be expected.

Implications of Militarizing Elections in Nigeria: The Ekiti and Osun State

“…Femi Falana (SAN), last year identified other reasons for the postponement of the 2015 general elections other than insecurity and poor preparations on the part of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC (Onapajo, 2015). According to him, the People's Democratic Party, PDP-led Federal Government connived with the military and other security forces to pressure the then INEC Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, to postpone the election when they discovered that the Ekiti governorship election rigging tape had exposed their antics because they planned to use the Ekiti State rigging style for the entire country (Orji, 2014). Falana spoke on a day Governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti State asked his immediate predecessor, Dr Kayode Fayemi, to proceed to court and tender the audio clip where it was alleged that soldiers were used to rig the June 21, 2014 governorship election in the state.…”

“…Apparently not wanting to take chances, APC fired a stronglyworded letter dated February 16, 2015 to the then INEC Chairman, Professor Atahiru Jega, formally stating its opposition to the matter. APC also backed the letter up with accompanying legal authorities from both the Federal High Court and the Court of Appeal (Orji, 2014). The letter, which was written by the Director, Legal Services of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, Chukwuma-Machukwu Ume (SAN), was addressed to Jega, copies of which were also made available to then President Goodluck Jonathan, the National Security Adviser, the Chief of Defense Staff, the Chief of Army Staff, Chief of Naval Staff, Chief of Air Staff and the National Chairmen of the APC and the PDP.…”

“…Putting it in a better perspective is Attahiru Jega, who, while arguing from an insider perspective, identified the major impediments to election security in Nigeria as including: "physical attacks on electoral officials and facilities, attacks on security personnel on election duties, misuse of security orderlies by politicians, especially incumbents; attacks on opponents; attacks on members of the public; violence at campaigns; intimidation of voters; snatching of election materials; kidnapping and assassination of political opponents" (Orji, 2014). However, what Jega failed to mention, and which is very important in the context of Nigeria, is violence perpetrated by the security personnel drafted to secure elections, such as intimidation of voters, oppression and victimization of members of political parties different from that of the government at the center, excessive show of force and connivance with politicians to perpetrate rigging.…”

“…There had been occasions when Nigeria's electoral commission had invited the attention of security agents to unprofessional conduct of their staff during elections, but without corresponding remedial measures (Olurode, 2013). The Nigerian experience with elections and electoral violence date back to her colonial epoch, and since the attainment of independence, elections are increasingly posing greatest security concerns over how to secure the men saddled with the conduct of the elections; materials needed for the elections as well as the voters and the candidates standing for the elections (Orji, 2014). In other words, the first security challenge facing electoral conduct in Nigeria is that securing the men and materials for the election.…”

“…The election entailed the acquisition of over 120,000 ballot boxes, printing of about 400 million ballot papers and managing a voter roll of over 73 million entries. In fact, in the registration of voters that preceded the elections, the machines used in the exercise would have formed a chain of over eighty kilometers if placed end to end and the over 400,000 staff used in the exercise out-numbered the collective strength of the entire armed forces of the West African sub-region (Orji, 2014). On its part, the then ruling People's Democratic Party, PDP, has continued to maintain that the planned deployment of military personnel on election days across the country is simply to ensure that there is no form of electoral violence, such that were witnessed in the county in 2011, particularly in the north, which claimed the lives of many innocent Nigerians and the destruction of properties.…”