Xinjiang is a typical continental arid climate zone and ecologically fragile zone. Drought has caused damage to the local social economy, agricultural production, and the ecological environment. However, the study of drought is more difficult due to the complex topography and the lack of monitoring information. In this paper, based on the meteorological data of 94 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020, we used the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) to calculate the aridity index (AI); the Mann–Kendall test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and Kriging interpolation were used to identify the trend, period, and spatial distribution. The results showed that (1) the average change rate of the precipitation in Xinjiang was 8.58 mm/10a, the average change rate of the ET0 was −14.84 mm/10a, and the average change rate of the AI was −1.94/10a; (2) the periods of precipitation, ET0, and AI in Xinjiang were 39, 29, and 14 years, respectively, and the abrupt changes occurred in 1986, 1971, and 1987, respectively; (3) The Moran index of precipitation and temperature are 0.41 and 0.33, respectively, indicating that precipitation and temperature in Xinjiang are positively correlated in spatial distribution and have spatial clustering characteristics; and the z-values are both greater than 2.58 (p < 0.01), indicating that the spatial autocorrelation of precipitation and temperature in Xinjiang is significant. This study can provide a reference for the diagnosis of the meteorological drought mechanism and the coping with climate change in Xinjiang.
The study of changes in the resilience of socio-hydrological systems in arid zones is of great significance to ensure the sustainable development of socio-economic and water resources in arid zones. In order to fully understand the level of resilience development of the Tarim River Basin socio-hydrological system and the main impediments to its development, we constructed a resilience evaluation model of the Tarim River Basin socio-hydrological system from two aspects, vulnerability and adaptability, which is what makes this paper different from other studies. The evaluation index weights were determined using a comprehensive assignment, and the barrier factors and evolutionary characteristics of the system resilience were revealed based on the TOPSIS algorithm and barrier degree model. The results show that (1) during the period 2001–2020, the resilience of the socio-hydrological system in the Tarim River Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the calculated values mainly in the range of 0.8–1.5, and the overall resilience level was mainly at the medium or good level; (2) from the changes in each criterion layer, the vulnerability and adaptability of the Tarim River Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2020, with an increase in vulnerability and adaptability; and (3) the main barriers to the resilience of the socio-hydrological system in the Tarim River Basin are the degree of pollution of surface water sources and the amount of water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP. We believe that we should continue to change the economic development model, vigorously develop water-saving irrigation technology, improve water resource utilisation and economic benefits, and improve the overall resilience of the socio-hydrological system. A full understanding of the evolutionary characteristics of the resilience of socio-hydrological systems and the main influencing factors can provide a theoretical basis for future water resources development and utilisation, socio-economic development, and related policy formulation.
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