Evaluation of the Resilience of the Socio-Hydrological System of the Tarim River Basin in China and Analysis of the Degree of Barriers

Abstract

The study of changes in the resilience of socio-hydrological systems in arid zones is of great significance to ensure the sustainable development of socio-economic and water resources in arid zones. In order to fully understand the level of resilience development of the Tarim River Basin socio-hydrological system and the main impediments to its development, we constructed a resilience evaluation model of the Tarim River Basin socio-hydrological system from two aspects, vulnerability and adaptability, which is what makes this paper different from other studies. The evaluation index weights were determined using a comprehensive assignment, and the barrier factors and evolutionary characteristics of the system resilience were revealed based on the TOPSIS algorithm and barrier degree model. The results show that (1) during the period 2001–2020, the resilience of the socio-hydrological system in the Tarim River Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the calculated values mainly in the range of 0.8–1.5, and the overall resilience level was mainly at the medium or good level; (2) from the changes in each criterion layer, the vulnerability and adaptability of the Tarim River Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2020, with an increase in vulnerability and adaptability; and (3) the main barriers to the resilience of the socio-hydrological system in the Tarim River Basin are the degree of pollution of surface water sources and the amount of water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP. We believe that we should continue to change the economic development model, vigorously develop water-saving irrigation technology, improve water resource utilisation and economic benefits, and improve the overall resilience of the socio-hydrological system. A full understanding of the evolutionary characteristics of the resilience of socio-hydrological systems and the main influencing factors can provide a theoretical basis for future water resources development and utilisation, socio-economic development, and related policy formulation.

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Water Footprint in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020

“…Water use efficiency is the most significant factor inhibiting the growth of the water footprint, and improving the water use efficiency can improve the regional water footprint, which is also consistent with many scholars' studies [33,34,47]. In terms of water use efficiency, the Xinjiang government attaches great importance to improving the intensive and economical use of water resources.…”

Evaluation and Obstacle Degree Analysis of Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Hotan Area

“…On the other hand, it also shows that the obstacle factors affecting the sustainable development of water resources mainly come from the factor layer of water resources pressure and water resources response ability [30][31][32]. In the past 20 years, the vegetation area of water resources in Hotan has fluctuated and declined, the intensity of water resources development and utilization has increased [33,34], the water environment has deteriorated, the social and economic benefits of water resources have improved, and the local conditions of water resources in the region have improved , so it is urgent to strengthen the protection of water resources in the region for sustainable development of water resources in the region.…”

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment for the Tarim River Basin on the Basis of Land-Use Change

“…Mountains, oases, and deserts are the most abundant components of the basin. The rivers originate in the mountains [24]. The Tarim River has a total length of 2179 km, and the main water source is glacial meltwaters [24][25][26].…”

“…The rivers originate in the mountains [24]. The Tarim River has a total length of 2179 km, and the main water source is glacial meltwaters [24][25][26]. The annual mean temperature is 10.6~11.5 • C and the annual mean precipitation is 17.4~42.8 mm [25].…”

“…Due to the impacts of human activities, climate warming, etc., the integrity of the water system in the basin is broken. The Chechen, Dina, and Kriya rivers lost their connection to the main stream of the Tarim River in the 1940s, causing great damage to the ecosystem [24]. Therefore, since 2000, the government has implemented a comprehensive ecological restoration project.…”