We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP growth, leading the lower quantiles of GDP growth to vary with financial conditions and the upper quantiles to be stable over time. Upside risks to GDP growth are low in most periods while downside risks increase as financial conditions become tighter. We argue that amplification mechanisms in the financial sector generate the observed growth vulnerability dynamics. (JEL C53, E23, E27, E32, E44)

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractWe develop a theory of financial intermediary leverage cycles in the context of a dynamic model of the macroeconomy. The interaction between a production sector, a financial intermediation sector, and a household sector gives rise to amplification of fundamental shocks that affect real economic activity. The model features two state variables that represent the dynamics of the economy: the net worth and the leverage of financial intermediaries. The leverage of the intermediaries is procyclical, owing to risk-sensitive funding constraints. Relative to an economy with constant leverage, financial intermediaries generate higher output and consumption growth and lower consumption volatility in normal times, but at the cost of systemic solvency and liquidity risks. We show that tightening intermediaries' risk constraints affects the systemic risk-return trade-off by lowering the likelihood of systemic crises at the cost of higher pricing of risk. Our model thus represents a conceptual framework for cyclical macroprudential policies within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractWe develop a theory of financial intermediary leverage cycles in the context of a dynamic model of the macroeconomy. The interaction between a production sector, a financial intermediation sector, and a household sector gives rise to amplification of fundamental shocks that affect real economic activity. The model features two state variables that represent the dynamics of the economy: the net worth and the leverage of financial intermediaries. The leverage of the intermediaries is procyclical, owing to risk-sensitive funding constraints. Relative to an economy with constant leverage, financial intermediaries generate higher output and consumption growth and lower consumption volatility in normal times, but at the cost of systemic solvency and liquidity risks. We show that tightening intermediaries' risk constraints affects the systemic risk-return trade-off by lowering the likelihood of systemic crises at the cost of higher pricing of risk. Our model thus represents a conceptual framework for cyclical macroprudential policies within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.

We propose the eigenfunction expansion method for pricing options in quadratic term structure models. The eigenvalues, eigenfunctions, and adjoint functions are calculated using elements of the representation theory of Lie algebras not only in the self-adjoint case, but in non-self-adjoint case as well; the eigenfunctions and adjoint functions are expressed in terms of Hermite polynomials. We demonstrate that the method is efficient for pricing caps, floors, and swaptions, if time to maturity is 1 year or more. We also consider subordination of the same class of models, and show that in the framework of the eigenfunction expansion approach, the subordinated models are (almost) as simple as pure Gaussian models. We study the dependence of Black implied volatilities and option prices on the type of non-Gaussian innovations.KEY WORDS: derivative pricing, swaptions, caps and floors, multi-factor exactly solvable models, eigenfunction expansion, continuous algebraic Riccati equations, Lyapunov equations, representation theory of Lie algebras, Hermite polynomialsThe authors are grateful to Vadim Linetsky for useful discussions and suggestions, and especially to the associate editor and two anonymous referees for a numerous valuable comments on the first two versions of the paper and recommendations. The usual disclaimer applies.Manuscript

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Do regulations decrease dealer ability to intermediate trades? Using a unique data set of dealerbond-level transactions, we link changes in liquidity of individual U.S. corporate bonds to dealers' transaction activity and balance sheet constraints. We show that, prior to the financial crisis, bonds traded by more levered institutions and institutions with investment-bank-like characteristics were more liquid but this relationship reverses after the financial crisis. In addition, institutions that face more regulations after the crisis both reduce their overall volume of trade and have less ability to intermediate customer trades.

We evaluate the impact of the Federal Reserve corporate credit facilities (PMCCF and SMCCF). A third of the positive effect on prices and liquidity occurred on the announcement date. We document immediate pass-through into primary markets, particularly for eligible issuers. Improvements continue as additional information is shared and purchases begin, with the impact of bond purchases larger than the impact of purchases of ETFs. Exploiting cross-sectional evidence, we see the greatest impact on investment grade bonds and in industries less affected by COVID, concluding that the improvement in corporate credit markets can be attributed both to announcement effects of Federal Reserve interventions on the economy and to the specific differential impact of the facilities on eligible issues.

We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions in the United States, documenting a novel empirical fact: while the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the emergence of additional modes-that is, multiple economic equilibria. Although the U.S. economy has historically reverted quickly to a "good" equilibrium after a tightening of financial conditions, we conjecture that poor policy choices under these circumstances could also open a pathway to a "bad" equilibrium for a prolonged period. We argue that such multimodality arises naturally in a macro-financial intermediary model with occasionally binding intermediary constraints.