This paper employs data from selected sample survey areas in the northern Fertile Crescent to demonstrate how initial urbanization developed along several pathways. The first, during the Late Chalcolithic period, was within a dense pattern of rural settlement. There followed a profound shift in settlement pattern that resulted in the formation of large walled or ramparted sites ('citadel cities') associated with a more dynamic phase of urbanization exemplified by short cycles of growth and collapse. By the later third millennium BC, the distribution of larger centres had expanded to include the drier agropastoral zone of northern and central Syria, termed here the 'zone of uncertainty'. This configuration, in turn, formed the context for Middle Bronze Age settlement, and the pattern of political rivalries and alliances that typified the second millennium BC. Evidence is marshalled from archaeological surveys and landscape analyses to examine these multiple paths to urbanization from the perspectives of (a) staple production within major 123J World Prehist (2014) 27:43-109 DOI 10.1007/s10963-014-9072-2 agricultural lowlands; (b) the shift towards higher risk animal husbandry within climatically marginal regions; (c) changes in local and inter-regional networks (connectivity); and (d) ties and rights to the land. Textile production forms the core of the proposed model, which emphasizes how the demand for wool and associated pasture lands opened up new landscapes for agro-pastoral production and settlement. The resultant landscapes of settlement are then compared with the picture in the southern Levant where a more restricted zone of uncertainty may have limited the opportunities for agro-pastoral production.
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The geomorphology and Quaternary history of the River Orontes in western Syria and south-central Turkey have been studied using a combination of methods: field survey, differential GPS, satellite imagery, analysis of sediments to determine provenance, flow direction and fluvial environment, incorporation of evidence from fossils for both palaeoenvironments and biostratigraphy, uranium-series dating of calcrete cement, reconciliation of Palaeolithic archaeological contents, and uplift modelling based on terrace height distribution. The results underline the contrasting nature of different reaches of the Orontes, in part reflecting different crustal blocks, with different histories of landscape evolution. Upstream from Homs the Orontes has a system of calcreted terraces that form a staircase extending to~200 m above the river. New U-series dating provides an age constraint within the lower part of the sequence that suggests underestimation of terrace ages in previous reviews. This upper valley is separated from another terraced reach, in the Middle Orontes, by a gorge cut through the Late Miocene-Early Pliocene Homs Basalt. The Middle Orontes terraces have long been recognized as a source of mammalian fossils and Palaeolithic artefacts, particularly from Latamneh, near the downstream end of the reach. This terraced section of the valley ends at a fault scarp, marking the edge of the subsiding Ghab Basin (a segment of the Dead Sea Fault Zone), which has been filled to a depth of 1 km by dominantly lacustrine sediments of Pliocene-Quaternary age. Review of the fauna from Latamneh suggests that its age is 1.2-0.9 Ma, significantly older than previously supposed, and commensurate with less uplift in this reach than both the Upper and Lower Orontes. Two localities near the downstream end of the Ghab have provided molluscan and ostracod assemblages that record somewhat saline environments, perhaps caused by desiccation within the former lacustrine basin, although they include fluvial elements. The Ghab is separated from another subsiding and formerly lacustrine depocentre, the Amik Basin of Hatay Province, Turkey, by a second gorge, implicit of uplift, this time cut through Palaeogene limestone. The NE-SW oriented lowermost reach of the Orontes is again terraced, with a third and most dramatic gorge through the northern edge of the Ziyaret Dağı mountains, which are known to have experienced rapid uplift, probably again enhanced by movement on an active fault. Indeed, a conclusion of the research, in which these various reaches are compared, is that the crust in the Hatay region is significantly more dynamic than that further upstream, where uplift has been less rapid and less continuous.
Global Forest Change datasets have the potential to assist countries with national forest measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) requirements. This paper assesses the accuracy of the Global Forest Change data against nationally derived forest change data by comparing the forest loss estimates from the global data with the equivalent data from Guyana for the period 2001–2017. To perform a meaningful comparison between these two datasets, the initial year 2000 forest state needs first to be matched to the definition of forest land cover appropriate to a local national setting. In Guyana, the default definition of 30% tree cover overestimates forest area is by 483,000 ha (18.15%). However, by using a tree canopy cover (i.e., density of tree canopy coverage metric) threshold of 94%, a close match between the Guyana-MRV non-forest area and the Global Forest Change dataset is achieved with a difference of only 24,210 ha (0.91%) between the two maps. A complimentary analysis using a two-stage stratified random sampling design showed the 94% tree canopy cover threshold gave a close correspondence (R2 = 0.98) with the Guyana-MRV data, while the Global Forest Change default setting of 30% tree canopy cover threshold gave a poorer fit (R2 = 0.91). Having aligned the definitions of forest for the Global Forest Change and the Guyana-MRV products for the year 2000, we show that over the period 2001–2017 the Global Forest Change data yielded a 99.34% overall Correspondence with the reference data and a 94.35% Producer’s Accuracy. The Guyana-MRV data yielded a 99.36% overall Correspondence with the reference data and a 95.94% Producer’s Accuracy. A year-by-year analysis of change from 2001–2017 shows that in some years, the Global Forest Change dataset underestimates change, and in other years, such as 2016 and 2017, change is detected that is not forest loss or gain, hence the apparent overestimation. The conclusion is that, when suitably calibrated for percentage tree cover, the Global Forest Change datasets give a good first approximation of forest loss (and, probably, gains). However, in countries with large areas of forest cover and low levels of deforestation, these data should not be relied upon to provide a precise annual loss/gain or rate of change estimate for audit purposes without using independent high-quality reference data.
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