Global tobacco deaths are high and rising. Tobacco use is primarily driven by nicotine addiction. Overall tobacco control policy is relatively well agreed upon but a long term nicotine policy has been less well considered and requires further debate. Reaching consensus is important because a nicotine policy is integral to the target of reducing tobacco caused disease, and the contentious issues need to be resolved before the necessary political changes can be sought. A long term and comprehensive nicotine policy is proposed here. It envisages both reducing the attractiveness and addictiveness of existing tobacco based nicotine delivery systems as well as providing alternative sources of acceptable clean nicotine as competition for tobacco. Clean nicotine is defined as nicotine free enough of tobacco toxicants to pass regulatory approval. A three phase policy is proposed. The initial phase requires regulatory capture of cigarette and smoke constituents liberalising the market for clean nicotine; regulating all nicotine sources from the same agency; and research into nicotine absorption and the role of tobacco additives in this process. The second phase anticipates clean nicotine overtaking tobacco as the primary source of the drug (facilitated by use of regulatory and taxation measures); simplification of tobacco products by limitation of additives which make tobacco attractive and easier to smoke (but tobacco would still be able to provide a satisfying dose of nicotine). The third phase includes a progressive reduction in the nicotine content of cigarettes, with clean nicotine freely available to take the place of tobacco as society’s main nicotine source.
BackgroundIncidence rates for adenocarcinoma of the lung are increasing and are higher in the United States than in many other developed countries. We examine whether these trends may be associated with changes in cigarette design.MethodsLung cancer risk equations based on observations during 1960–1972 from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study I are applied to 5-year birth cohort–specific estimates of changes in smoking behaviors to predict birth cohort–specific rates of squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the lung among US White men for the period 1973–2000. These expected rates are compared to observed rates for the same birth cohorts of White men in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data.ResultsChanges in smoking behaviors over the past several decades adequately explain the changes in squamous cell carcinoma rates observed in the SEER data. However, predicted rates for adenocarcinoma do not match the observed SEER data without inclusion of a term increasing the risk for adenocarcinoma with the duration of smoking after 1965.ConclusionThe risk of developing squamous cell carcinoma from smoking appears to have remained stable in the United States over the past several decades; however, the risk of adenocarcinoma has increased substantially in a pattern temporally associated with changes in cigarette design.
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