The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario literature and SRES, identifies the most vulnerable elements in the communication of SRES. In the communication of GHG emission scenarios through SRES, the weaknesses that have been identified by the authors of this paper are the normative character of climate change assessment, the plausibility of the scenarios, and the risk of simplification of complex messages. The causes of these communicative issues have been identified as the intrinsic difficulties of interdisciplinary science, the uniqueness of the science-policy relation, and the need for a high degree of transparency. This paper suggests improving future communication of complex messages from scientists to their audience by means of clear reasoning when communicating with non-scientists, explicitly normative emission scenarios, and increased stakeholder participation in scenario development.
Summary
Waste paper is suitable for recycling back into paper or for incineration for energy recovery. If waste paper is used for recycling, secondary pulp replaces virgin pulp. Fiber recycling is limited, however, because of physical constraints—particularly the breakage of fiber in the recycling process—and a permanent input of virgin fiber to the system is required. Therefore one can expect that the relationship between recycling rates and resource requirements is represented by a curved line rather than a straight one. In this article, we present a mathematical model which confirms that the relationship between recycling rates and primary pulp requirements can be described as nonlinear. Furthermore, we show that this nonlinear relationship leads to an optimal recycling rate with regard to energy consumption: 93 persent for paper produced from chemical pulp, and 81 persent for paper produced from mechanical pulp. Sensitivity testing additionally reveals that at low recycling rates increasing waste paper recycling is energy efficient, but it becomes less efficient at higher recycling rates. Close to the optimum recycling rates (within 10 persent), increasing or decreasing the rate affects the total energy requirement less than 0.3%
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