Integrated understanding of phasings within the climate system over the last glacial cycle, and at higher frequencies, is inhibited because no absolute timescale for the marine environment currently exists. This precludes identification of forcings and feedbacks, accurate temporal calibration of the marine radiocarbon reservoir effect, and the application of radiocarbon as a proxy of short-timescale ocean ventilation. This has prompted a search for annually banded marine proxies in the hope of establishing an accurate marine chronometer. We present annual growth band series from dead-collected specimens of the long-lived bivalve mollusc Arctica islandica from the northern North Sea and demonstrate their successful cross-matching, with the general timescale context independently verified by radiocarbon dating. Though at present limited to only a few statistically cross-matched series, this has already generated the longest Arctica chronology, and the first ‘floating’ chronology constructed entirely from marine fossils. The record covers the period from c. AD 1000 to 1400 and integrates a 267-yr series from the longest-lived Arctica specimen yet recorded from the North Sea. This breakthrough in cross-matching demonstrates that Arctica islandica can fulfill its potential as the ‘tree of the sea’ to provide an absolute timescale for the marine environment.

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World Bank and Australian NHMRC.

[1] The creation of networks of shell-based chronologies which can provide regionally extensive highresolution proxies for the marine environment depends on the spatial extent of the common environmental signal preserved in the shell banding and on the reliability of the dating model. Here Arctica islandica chronologies from five neighboring sites in the North Sea are compared, and the strength of the common environmental signal across distances up to 80 km is analyzed using statistical techniques derived from dendrochronology. The signal is found to be coherent across these distances. In a linked study, chronologies based on one of the same sites but constructed by two different research teams are compared. Methodological differences in increment interpretation are found to lead to slippage in the dating models. Systematic inclusion or exclusion of intermittently occurring increments results in the two chronologies becoming misaligned by 4 years over a 70-year period. Comparisons with neighboring chronologies indicate that such increments can generally be regarded as genuine annual increments even if they are not visible in all shells.

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IntroductionInternational investment in the response to HIV and AIDS has plateaued and its future level is uncertain. With many countries committed to ending the epidemic, it is essential to allocate available resources efficiently over different response periods to maximize impact. The objective of this study is to propose a technique to determine the optimal allocation of funds over time across a set of HIV programmes to achieve desirable health outcomes.MethodsWe developed a technique to determine the optimal time-varying allocation of funds (1) when the future annual HIV budget is pre-defined and (2) when the total budget over a period is pre-defined, but the year-on-year budget is to be optimally determined. We use this methodology with Optima, an HIV transmission model that uses non-linear relationships between programme spending and associated programmatic outcomes to quantify the expected epidemiological impact of spending. We apply these methods to data collected from Zambia to determine the optimal distribution of resources to fund the right programmes, for the right people, at the right time.Results and discussionConsidering realistic implementation and ethical constraints, we estimate that the optimal time-varying redistribution of the 2014 Zambian HIV budget between 2015 and 2025 will lead to a 7.6% (7.3% to 7.8%) decrease in cumulative new HIV infections compared with a baseline scenario where programme allocations remain at 2014 levels. This compares to a 5.1% (4.6% to 5.6%) reduction in new infections using an optimal allocation with constant programme spending that recommends unrealistic programmatic changes. Contrasting priorities for programme funding arise when assessing outcomes for a five-year funding period over 5-, 10- and 20-year time horizons.ConclusionsCountries increasingly face the need to do more with the resources available. The methodology presented here can aid decision-makers in planning as to when to expand or contract programmes and to which coverage levels to maximize impact.

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This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions from the World Bank's vendor and from the Government of Zimbabwe. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or other partner institutions or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.