SUMMARYWe estimate the impulse response function (IRF) of GDP to a banking crisis using an extension of the local pro jections method. We demonstrate that, though robust to misspecifications of the data generating process, this method suffers from a hitherto unnoticed bias which increases with the forecast horizon. We propose a correction to this bias and show through simulations that it works well. Applying our corrected local projections estimator to the data from a panel of 99 countries observed between 1974 and 2001, we find that an average banking crisis yields a GDP loss of just under 10% in 10 years, with little sign of recovery. Like the original local projections method, our extension of it is widely applicable.

We study the relationship between sales assistant turnover and labor productivity in 325 stores of a large U.K. clothing retailer tracked over 1995-99. We find that the turnover-productivity relationship is contingent on type of work system. For a large group of part-timers, managed under a "secondary" work system, the relationship clearly has an inverted U-shape, but for the smaller group of full-timers, managed under a "commitment" system, the relationship is the conventional negative one. Implications for the contingency view of the link between turnover and productivity are discussed.

Using matched firm-worker data from Danish manufacturing, we observe firm-to-firm worker movements and find that firms that hired workers from more productive firms experience productivity gains one year after the hiring. The productivity gains associated with hiring from more productive firms are equivalent to 0.35 percent per year for an average firm. Surviving a variety of statistical controls, these gains increase with education, tenure, and skill level of new hires, persist for several years after the hiring was done, and remain broadly similar for different industries and measures of productivity. Competing explanations for these gains, knowledge spillovers in particular, are discussed. (JEL D24, J24, J62, L60, O33)

In a field experiment with a retail chain (1,300 employees, 193

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