Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses

Teulings, Coen N.; Zubanov, Nick

doi:10.1002/jae.2333

Cited by 228 publications

(210 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(24 reference statements)

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“…An adaptation of the local projections method developed in Jorda (2005) and extended in Teulings and Zubanov (2014), this easy to implement estimation procedure is robust to possible dynamic misspecifications in the underlying equations. The coefficients γ q and Γ q estimate the effects of the gap on SPs' wage premium and non SPs' wages q þ 1 years after joining the new firm, and the coefficient θ q measures the effect of the gaps times share on output.…”

Section: Tablementioning

confidence: 99%

The distribution of the gains from spillovers through worker mobility between workers and firms

Stoyanov

Zubanov

2014

European Economic Review

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a b s t r a c tKnowledge spillovers through worker mobility between firms, found in previous research, imply that knowledge production within firms creates a positive externality to the hiring firms and their workers. We calculate the shares in the gains from spillovers retained by these parties using matched employer employee data from Danish manufacturing. We find that around two thirds of the total output gain (0.1% per year) is netted by the firms as extra profit, about a quarter goes to the incumbent workers as extra wages, while the workers who bring spillovers receive no more than 8% of it. This gains distribution, which favors the hiring firms, is similar for different types of moving workers, and is stable over time.

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Section: Tablementioning

confidence: 99%

The distribution of the gains from spillovers through worker mobility between workers and firms

Stoyanov

Zubanov

2014

European Economic Review

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“…As a final check, we correct for the impulse responses bias identified by Teulings and Zubanov (2014) in local projections estimation using panel data. At some forecasting horizon, the dependent variable may already be affected by the implementation of the consolidation, even though the variable measuring consolidation is set equal to zero.…”

Section: 23mentioning

confidence: 99%

Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions

Dell’Erba¹,

Poplawski-Ribeiro²,

Koloskova³

2014

IMF Working Papers

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The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda's (2005) local projection methodology, we find that cumulative fiscal multipliers related to output, employment and unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to reduce public debt burdens should proceed gradually if economic activity remains below trend for a prolonged period. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E62, H20, H50, J40

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“…The method is based on estimating separate regressions that are local to each forecast horizon. As noted in the literature (Jordà, 2005(Jordà, , 2009Jordà et al, 2013;Teulings and Zubanov, 2014), the method has advantages vis-à-vis the estimation of ARDL equations. It is of practical application, as it only requires traditional least-squares methods.…”

Section: Empirical Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Zdzienicka (2012), Jordà et al (2013), andTeulings andZubanov (2014). The defining characteristic of the local projections method is that it is based on estimating separate regressions that are local to each forecast horizon.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper we use the local projections method developed by Jordà (2005) to model the effect of banking crises within a panel econometric setting, as done, among others, in Furceri and Zdzienicka (2012), Jordà et al (2013), and Teulings and Zubanov (2014). The defining characteristic of the local projections method is that it is based on estimating separate regressions that are local to each forecast horizon.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effects of systemic banking crises in the inter-war period

Rocha

Solomou

2015

Journal of International Money and Finance

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may• from the SSRN website:www. SSRN.com • from the RePEc website:www. RePEc.org • from the CESifo website:T www.CESifo-group.org/wpT ISSN 2364-1428CESifo Working Paper No. 5271 The Effects of Systemic Banking Crises in the Inter-War Period Abstract This paper examines the time-profile of the impact of systemic banking crises on GDP and industrial production using a panel of 24 countries over the inter-war period and compares this to the post-war experience of these countries. We show that banking crises have effects that induce medium-term adjustments on economies. Focusing on an eight-year horizon, it is clear that the negative effects of systemic banking crises last over the entirety of this time-horizon. The effect has been identified for GDP and industrial production. The adverse effect on the industrial sector stands out as being substantially larger in magnitude relative to the macroeconomic effect. Comparing the results across long-run historical periods for the same selection of countries and variables identifies some differences that stand out: the short term macroeconomic impact effects are much larger in the post-war period, suggesting that the propagation channels of shocks operate at a faster pace in the more recent period. Moreover, the time-profile of effects differs, suggesting that modern policies may be modulating the temporal shape of the response to banking crises shocks. However, the broad magnitude of the adverse effect of banking crises remains comparable across these time periods.JEL-Code: E600, N000, N200, G010.Keywords: local projections, banking crises, financial crises, economic history, inter-war. Bruno Rocha University of Cambridge IntroductionThis paper examines the time-profile of the impact of systemic banking crises on GDP and industrial production using a panel of 24 countries over the inter-war period and compares this to the post-war experience of these countries. The main aim of the paper is to clarify our understanding of the impact of banking crises during the inter-war period. The choice of countries is partly determined by historical data availability but we are able to study a diverse set of economies with differences in production structures, per capita income, and financial depth. Although there is significant general interest on the inter-war period in the literature on financial crises, partly because banking c...

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Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses

Cited by 228 publications

References 14 publications

The distribution of the gains from spillovers through worker mobility between workers and firms

The distribution of the gains from spillovers through worker mobility between workers and firms

Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions

The effects of systemic banking crises in the inter-war period

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