The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower income countries may reduce overall risk but limited health system capacity coupled with closer inter-generational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower income countries due to the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being and economies of these countries.

Summary Background COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. Methods Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. Interpretation Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27–77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49–91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12–48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.

Background After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their “test, trace, isolate” strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea’s outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. Methods We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. Results We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, Rt dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI, 1.64–2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June, Rt was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent “lockdown” measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high-incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late February. Testing the capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly; however, we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. Conclusions Whilst early adoption of testing and contact tracing is likely to be important for South Korea’s successful outbreak control, other factors including regional implementation of strong social distancing measures likely also contributed. The high volume of testing and the low number of deaths suggest that South Korea experienced a small epidemic relative to other countries. Caution is needed in attempting to replicate the South Korean response in populations with larger more geographically widespread epidemics where finding, testing, and isolating cases that are linked to clusters may be more difficult.

For over fifty years, the pathogenesis of May-Thurner syndrome (MTS) has been associated with chronic left common iliac vein compression resulting in the formation of intraluminal, permanent obstructive lesions. However, despite this association, the mechanism by which compression produces these lesions is unknown. Diagnostic accuracy of MTS is critical since it often afflicts young patients requiring endovascular management. This review will focus on the historical, embryological and evolutionary description of MTS and examine its development, diagnosis, clinical management and potential diagnostic errors.

Cambodia, in which both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum are endemic, has been the focus of numerous malaria-control interventions, resulting in a marked decline in overall malaria incidence. Despite this decline, the number of P. vivax cases has actually increased. To understand better the factors underlying this resilience, we compared the genetic responses of the two species to recent selective pressures. We sequenced and studied the genomes of 70 P. vivax and 80 P. falciparum isolates collected between 2009 and 2013. We found that although P. falciparum has undergone population fracturing, the coendemic P. vivax population has grown undisrupted, resulting in a larger effective population size, no discernable population structure, and frequent multiclonal infections. Signatures of selection suggest recent, species-specific evolutionary differences. Particularly, in contrast to P. falciparum, P. vivax transcription factors, chromatin modifiers, and histone deacetylases have undergone strong directional selection, including a particularly strong selective sweep at an AP2 transcription factor. Together, our findings point to different population-level adaptive mechanisms used by P. vivax and P. falciparum parasites. Although population substructuring in P. falciparum has resulted in clonal outgrowths of resistant parasites, P. vivax may use a nuanced transcriptional regulatory approach to population maintenance, enabling it to preserve a larger, more diverse population better suited to facing selective threats. We conclude that transcriptional control may underlie P. vivax's resilience to malaria control measures. Novel strategies to target such processes are likely required to eradicate P. vivax and achieve malaria elimination.D uring the last decade, western Cambodia has been the focus of numerous and multimodal interventions to control the spread of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum (1, 2). Such interventions, including increased vector control, increased surveillance, and improved access to quality artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT), would be expected to curtail coendemic Plasmodium vivax as well. However, even as P. falciparum infections in Cambodia decreased by 81% between 2009 and 2013, P. vivax cases have increased, making it the predominant species in the Mekong region (3-6). This scenario, repeated in Brazil and other areas of coendemicity, has led to growing awareness that P. vivax, although infecting the same populations and transmitted by the same mosquito vectors, will likely be the more challenging species to eradicate (6-9). In this study, we use population genomics to gain insight into the evolutionary factors underlying P. vivax's resilience to malaria control measures.Population genetic studies have previously hinted at the resilience of P. vivax populations in comparison with P. falciparum. Studies of microsatellites and highly variable antigens of sympatric P. vivax and P. falciparum populations in Southeast Asia and the Southwest Pacific have consistently shown P. viv...

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