Bangladesh positioned as third rice producing country in the world. In Bangladesh, regional growth and trend in rice production determinants, disparities and similarities of rice production environments are highly desirable. In this study, the secondary time series data of area, production, and yield of rice from 1969–70 to 2019–20 were used to investigate the growth and trend by periodic, regional, seasonal and total basis. Quality checking, trend fitting, and classification analysis were performed by the Durbin-Watson test, Exponential growth model, Cochrane-Orcutt iteration method and clustering method. The production contribution to the national rice production of Boro rice is increasing at 0.97% per year, where Aus and Aman season production contribution significantly decreased by 0.48% and 0.49% per year. Among the regions, Mymensingh, Rangpur, Bogura, Jashore, Rajshahi, and Chattogram contributed the most i.e., 13.9%, 9.8%, 8.6%, 8.6%, 8.2%, and 8.0%, respectively. Nationally, the area of Aus and Aman had a decreasing trend with a -3.63% and -0.16% per year, respectively. But, in the recent period (Period III) increasing trend was observed in the most regions. The Boro cultivation area is increasing with a rate of 3.57% per year during 1984–85 to 2019–20. High yielding variety adoption rate has increased over the period and in recent years it has found 72% for Aus, 73.5% for Aman, and 98.4% for Boro season. As a result, the yield of the Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons has been found increasing growth for most of the regions. We have identified different cluster regions in different seasons, indicating high dissimilarities among the rice production regions in Bangladesh. The region-wise actionable plan should be taken to rapidly adopt new varieties, management technologies and extension activities in lower contributor regions to improve productivity. Cluster-wise, policy strategies should be implemented for top and less contributor regions to ensure rice security of Bangladesh.
The study was undertaken to examine the best fitted ARIMA model that could be used to make efficient forecast boro rice production in Bangladesh from 2008-09 to 2012-13. It appeared from the study that local, modern and total boro time series are 1st order homogenous stationary. It is found from the study that the ARIMA (0,1,0) ARIMA (0,1,3) and ARIMA (0,1,2) are the best for local, modern and total boro rice production respectively. It is observed from the analysis that short term forecasts are more efficient for ARIMA models. The production uncertainty of boro rice can be minimizing if production can be forecasted well and necessary steps can be taken against losses. The government and producer as well use ARIMA methods to forecast future production more accurately in the short run. Keywords: Production; ARIMA model; Forecasting. DOI: 10.3329/jbau.v8i1.6406J. Bangladesh Agril. Univ. 8(1): 103-112, 2010
Rice production depends on both producers' and consumers' preference. The consumption of rice depends on consumers' taste and habits. The objectives of this study were to develop and validate mathematical models for producers', consumers' and producers-cum-consumers' preference to rice varieties and to evaluate the factors affecting both producers' and producer-cum-consumers' decision on varieties for rice cultivation and can provide an indication of the factors affecting consumers' preferences to rice varieties in Dhaka, Gazipur, Dinajpur and Bhola districts of Bangladesh. Chi-square ( 2 ) tests were used to explore the significant difference of preferring rice varieties among the groups of people and compared the results with the proposed models for validation. Producers and producers-cum-consumers preferred BR11, BR22 and BRRI dhan32 in T. Aman; BR16, BRRI dhan28 and BRRI dhan29 in Boro and BR9, BR16 and BR20 in Aus seasons respectively. The specific grain quality characteristics such as whiteness, brokens, shape, amylose (%), aroma, cooking quality, hardness and chalkiness influenced the consumers and producers preference. Furthermore, pure consumers also preferred rice varieties on the basis of its tastiness and fineness.
To assess the efficiency of genetic improvement programs, it is essential to assess the genetic trend in long-term data. The present study estimates the genetic trends for grain yield of rice varieties released between 1970 and 2020 by the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute. The yield of the varieties was assessed from 2001–2002 to 2020–2021 in multi-locations trials. In such a series of trials, yield may increase over time due to (i) genetic improvement (genetic trend) and (ii) improved management or favorable climate change (agronomic/non-genetic trend). In both the winter and monsoon seasons, we observed positive genetic and non-genetic trends. The annual genetic trend for grain yield in both winter and monsoon rice varieties was 0.01 t ha−1, while the non-genetic trend for both seasons was 0.02 t ha−1, corresponding to yearly genetic gains of 0.28% and 0.18% in winter and monsoon seasons, respectively. The overall percentage yield change from 1970 until 2020 for winter rice was 40.96%, of which 13.91% was genetic trend and 27.05% was non-genetic. For the monsoon season, the overall percentage change from 1973 until 2020 was 38.39%, of which genetic and non-genetic increases were 8.36% and 30.03%, respectively. Overall, the contribution of non-genetic trend is larger than genetic trend both for winter and monsoon seasons. These results suggest that limited progress has been made in improving yield in Bangladeshi rice breeding programs over the last 50 years. Breeding programs need to be modernized to deliver sufficient genetic gains in the future to sustain Bangladeshi food security.
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