Growth and trend analysis of area, production and yield of rice: A scenario of rice security in Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh positioned as third rice producing country in the world. In Bangladesh, regional growth and trend in rice production determinants, disparities and similarities of rice production environments are highly desirable. In this study, the secondary time series data of area, production, and yield of rice from 1969–70 to 2019–20 were used to investigate the growth and trend by periodic, regional, seasonal and total basis. Quality checking, trend fitting, and classification analysis were performed by the Durbin-Watson test, Exponential growth model, Cochrane-Orcutt iteration method and clustering method. The production contribution to the national rice production of Boro rice is increasing at 0.97% per year, where Aus and Aman season production contribution significantly decreased by 0.48% and 0.49% per year. Among the regions, Mymensingh, Rangpur, Bogura, Jashore, Rajshahi, and Chattogram contributed the most i.e., 13.9%, 9.8%, 8.6%, 8.6%, 8.2%, and 8.0%, respectively. Nationally, the area of Aus and Aman had a decreasing trend with a -3.63% and -0.16% per year, respectively. But, in the recent period (Period III) increasing trend was observed in the most regions. The Boro cultivation area is increasing with a rate of 3.57% per year during 1984–85 to 2019–20. High yielding variety adoption rate has increased over the period and in recent years it has found 72% for Aus, 73.5% for Aman, and 98.4% for Boro season. As a result, the yield of the Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons has been found increasing growth for most of the regions. We have identified different cluster regions in different seasons, indicating high dissimilarities among the rice production regions in Bangladesh. The region-wise actionable plan should be taken to rapidly adopt new varieties, management technologies and extension activities in lower contributor regions to improve productivity. Cluster-wise, policy strategies should be implemented for top and less contributor regions to ensure rice security of Bangladesh.

Large-scale rollout of extension training in Bangladesh: Challenges and opportunities for gender-inclusive participation

“…We are not certain whether this result was due to learning on the part of the program implementers to improve their outreach to women, or whether seasonal factors may have played a role. In the agricultural cycle in Bangladesh, January comes at the end of the Aman growing cycle which is the time of greatest crop production in Bangladesh, with rice being the principal crop [53,54]. According to colleagues, this is a time of year when many of those involved have more leisure, depending, of course, on when they choose to plant their winter crops.…”

Evaluation of hybrid rice parental lines against bacterial blight disease and detection of resistant gene (s) by gene‐specific, linked markers

“…The introduction of high‐yielding varieties that require high nitrogen fertilizer increases the incidence of BB in several parts of the world including Bangladesh (Ansari et al, 2020; Reddy, 1979). Bangladesh is an overpopulated country, and the demand for rice is increasing on a daily basis, whilst cultivable land is decreasing gradually due to industrialization, housing and other anthropogenic activities (Kabir et al, 2016; Mamun et al, 2021). To overcome these constraints, hybrid rice is a potential option since it can yield 20%–30% higher than the modern high‐yielding inbred varieties (Khush, 2013; Yu et al, 2016).…”

Effect of Seedling Age on Growth and Yield of Local Aman Rice Varieties in the Low Land Area of Southwestern Coastal Bangladesh

“…Agriculture in Bangladesh is characterized by intensive crop production with the rice-based cropping system. In Bangladesh, rice is the staple food crop and has got a tremendous influence on the economy of our country and is accounting ~78% of the net cropped area of the country [2]. The food security of Bangladesh indicates the sufficiency of rice production and is equivalent to rice security [3].…”

“…Moreover, in our area there is no scope for horizontal expansion of areas for rice cultivation rather it is decreasing day by day (1% per year) to use of arable land for infrastructural development [5]. In our country, the cultivation area of Aus and Aman rice has been declined by 3.63% and 0.16% per year, respectively while the Boro rice cultivation area has been increased by 3.57% per year [2].…”