Growing interest in local food has sparked debate about the merits of attempting to reduce the distance food travels. One point of contention is the capacity of local agriculture to meet the food needs of local people. In hopes of informing this debate, this research presents a method for mapping potential foodsheds, land areas that could theoretically feed urban centers. The model was applied to New York State (NYS). Geographic information systems were used to estimate the spatial distribution of food production capacity relative to the food needs of NYS population centers. Optimization tools were then applied to allocate production potential to meet food needs in the minimum distance possible. Overall, the model showed that NYS could provide 34% of its total food needs within an average distance of just 49 km. However, the model did not allocate production potential evenly. Most NYS population centers could have the majority of their food needs sourced in-state, except for the greater New York City (NYC) area. Thus, the study presents a mixed review of the potential for local food systems to reduce the distance food travels. While small- to medium-sized cities of NYS could theoretically meet their food needs within distances two orders of magnitude smaller than the current American food system, NYC must draw on more distant food-producing resources. Nonetheless, the foodshed model provides a successful template for considering the geography of food production and food consumption simultaneously. Such a tool could be valuable for examining how cities might change their food procurement to curb greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to depletion of petroleum and other energy resources necessary for long-distance transport of food.

Providing a wholesome and adequate food supply is the most basic tenet of agricultural sustainability. However, sharp increases in global food prices have occurred in the past 2 years, bringing the real price of food to the highest level seen in 30 years (FAO, 2008). This dramatic shift is a fundamental concern. The role of 'local food' in contributing to the solution of underlying problems is currently being debated, and the debate raises a critical question: To what degree can society continue to rely on large-scale, long-distance transportation of food? Growing concerns about climate change, the longevity of fossil fuel supplies and attempts to produce energy from agriculture suggest that energy efficiency will be critical to adapting to resource constraints and mitigating climate impacts. Moreover, these problems are urgent because energy prices, biofuel production and weather-related crop failures are partially responsible for the current world food price situation. Tools are needed to determine how the environmental impact and vulnerability of the food system are related to where food is produced in relation to where it is consumed. To this end, analyses of foodsheds, the geographic areas that feed population centers, can provide useful and unique insights.

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Public interest in local food continues to grow, but few analyses have examined the capacity for the US population to be supplied through local and regional food systems. This paper extends earlier work that demonstrated a method for mapping potential foodsheds and estimating the potential for New York to meet the food needs of the state's population centers. It provides a methodology for addressing the question, 'If land is limited, which foods should be grown locally?' A spatial model was developed to allocate the available agricultural land of New York State (NYS) to meet in-state food needs for six distinct food groups (grains, vegetables, fruits, dairy, meat and eggs) across the eight largest population centers. An optimization routine was used to allocate land to maximize economic land use value (LUV). Eleven scenarios were examined, ranging from a baseline level of consumption of New York produced foods to a 100% local diet. Across the 11 scenarios, the amount of food supplied, the LUV attained, and the area of land allocated increased as the 'willingness' to consume local products increased. This approach dictated that land was preferentially devoted to higher-value food groups relative to lower-value groups, and no scenario used all available land. Under the 100% local scenario, 69% of total food needs (on a fresh weight basis) were supplied in-state with an average food distance of 238 km. This scenario provided food from only four of the six groups, namely, dairy, eggs, fruit and vegetables. These results suggest that a much larger proportion of total food needs (on a weight basis) might be provided from in-state production than was found in previous work. LUV serves as a compelling optimization function, and future work should investigate the degree to which maximizing returns to land complements or conflicts with social and environmental goals of local and regional food systems.

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