Tourism is a complex system within a dynamic framework that is exposed to rapid and challenging developments. The existing tourism research does not fully address the nature of the global, intertwined challenges that may affect and shape the worldwide tourism system in the future with respect to both the industry and society. This article contributes to eliminating this knowledge gap using an exploratory Delphi survey that seeks to identify the most prominent challenges to global tourism through 2020 and to understand their nature, drivers, and effects. The five proposed meta-challenges demonstrate the complexity of the interrelations and interdependencies affecting the future of the global tourism system. These meta-challenges may also be regarded as constituting a strategic road map for global tourism in a complex and dynamic world.
Tourism is one of the most highly climate-sensitive economic sectors. Most of its main sub-sectors, including sun-and-beach tourism and nature-based tourism, play a major role in the North Sea region and are especially weather-und climate-dependent. On top of that, most tourist activities in the North Sea region occur in the coastal zones which are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Climate acts as both a 'push' and 'pull' factor in tourism. Climate-driven changes in tourism demand are hard to determine because the tourist decision-making process is also influenced by factors other than climate. Nevertheless, summer tourism in the North Sea region is expected to benefit from rising temperatures (air and water), decreasing precipitation and longer seasons. Destinations can reduce the negative impacts of climate change on tourism by adapting to the changes. The tourist industry also contributes to climate change. Not only is the tourist industry affected by climate change, it also contributes to climate change itself. Therefore, mitigating the climate effects of tourism is largely the responsibility of politicians, the tourism industry and tourism supply. Despite some negative impacts, the overall consequences of climate change for tourism in the North Sea region are expected to be positive.
ZusammenfassungDas globale Tourismussystem wird von dynamischen Rahmenbedingungen determiniert und steht großen Herausforderungen gegenüber. Eine explorative Delphi-Befragung identifiziert die wichtigsten Herausforderungen bis zum Jahre 2020, liefert Einblicke in deren Natur und erzeugt Bewusstsein für Ursachen und mögliche Auswirkungen. Fünf Meta-Ebenen verdeutlichen die komplexen Zusammenhänge und Abhängigkeiten, die das globale Tourismus-System voraussichtlich prägen werden. Die Meta-Herausforderungen eignen sich zwar als strategische Orientierungspunkte für Destinationsmanager, jedoch müssen Lösungen situationsspezifisch entwickelt werden. Es wird deutlich, dass globalen Herausforderungen insbesondere auf Destinationsebene begegnet werden muss, um die Wettbewerbsposition zu stärken.
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