IntroductionWith limited funds available, meeting global health targets requires countries to both mobilize and prioritize their health spending. Within this context, countries have recognized the importance of allocating funds for HIV as efficiently as possible to maximize impact. Over the past six years, the governments of 23 countries in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America have used the Optima HIV tool to estimate the optimal allocation of HIV resources.MethodsEach study commenced with a request by the national government for technical assistance in conducting an HIV allocative efficiency study using Optima HIV. Each study team validated the required data, calibrated the Optima HIV epidemic model to produce HIV epidemic projections, agreed on cost functions for interventions, and used the model to calculate the optimal allocation of available funds to best address national strategic plan targets. From a review and analysis of these 23 country studies, we extract common themes around the optimal allocation of HIV funding in different epidemiological contexts.Results and discussionThe optimal distribution of HIV resources depends on the amount of funding available and the characteristics of each country's epidemic, response and targets. Universally, the modelling results indicated that scaling up treatment coverage is an efficient use of resources. There is scope for efficiency gains by targeting the HIV response towards the populations and geographical regions where HIV incidence is highest. Across a range of countries, the model results indicate that a more efficient allocation of HIV resources could reduce cumulative new HIV infections by an average of 18% over the years to 2020 and 25% over the years to 2030, along with an approximately 25% reduction in deaths for both timelines. However, in most countries this would still not be sufficient to meet the targets of the national strategic plan, with modelling results indicating that budget increases of up to 185% would be required.ConclusionsGreater epidemiological impact would be possible through better targeting of existing resources, but additional resources would still be required to meet targets. Allocative efficiency models have proven valuable in improving the HIV planning and budgeting process.

Poverty and social inequality are significant drivers of the HIV epidemic and are risk factors for acquiring HIV. As such, many individuals worldwide are at risk for new HIV infection, especially young women in East and Southern Africa. By addressing these drivers, social protection programmes may mitigate the impact of poverty and social inequality on HIV risk. There is reason to believe that social protection can be used successfully for HIV prevention; social protection programmes, including cash transfers, have led to positive health outcomes and behaviour in other contexts, and they have been used successfully to promote education and increased income and employment opportunities. Furthermore, cash transfers have influenced sexual behaviour of young women and girls, thereby decreasing sexual risk factors for HIV infection. When HIV outcomes have been measured, several randomised controlled trials have shown that indirectly, cash transfers have led to reduced HIV prevalence and incidence. In these studies, school attendance and safer sexual health were directly incentivised through the cash transfer, yet there was a positive effect on HIV outcomes. In this review, we discuss the growth of social protection programmes, their benefits and impact on health, education and economic potential, and how these outcomes may affect HIV risk. We also review the studies that have shown that cash transfers can lead to reduced HIV infection, including study limitations and what questions still remain with regard to using cash transfers for HIV prevention.

Approximately 85% of tuberculosis (TB) related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where health resources are scarce. Effective priority setting is required to maximise the impact of limited budgets. The Optima TB tool has been developed to support analytical capacity and inform evidence-based priority setting processes for TB health benefits package design. This paper outlines the Optima TB framework and how it was applied in Belarus, an upper-middle income country in Eastern Europe with a relatively high burden of TB. Optima TB is a population-based disease transmission model, with programmatic cost functions and an optimisation algorithm. Modelled populations include age-differentiated general populations and higher-risk populations such as people living with HIV. Populations and prospective interventions are defined in consultation with local stakeholders. In partnership with the latter, demographic, epidemiological, programmatic, as well as cost and spending data for these populations and interventions are then collated. An optimisation analysis of TB spending was conducted in Belarus, using program objectives and constraints defined in collaboration with local stakeholders, which included experts, decision makers, funders and organisations involved in service delivery, support and technical assistance. These analyses show that it is possible to improve health impact by redistributing current TB spending in Belarus. Specifically, shifting funding from inpatient- to outpatient-focused care models, and from mass screening to active case finding strategies, could reduce TB prevalence and mortality by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035. In addition, an optimised allocation of TB spending could lead to a reduction in drug-resistant TB infections by 40% over this period. This would support progress towards national TB targets without additional financial resources. The case study in Belarus demonstrates how reallocations of spending across existing and new interventions could have a substantial impact on TB outcomes. This highlights the potential for Optima TB and similar modelling tools to support evidence-based priority setting.

Introduction Eswatini achieved a 44% decrease in new HIV infections from 2014 to 2019 through substantial scale-up of testing and treatment. However, it still has one of the highest rates of HIV incidence in the world, with 14 infections per 1,000 adults 15-49 years estimated for 2017. The Government of Eswatini has called for an 85% reduction in new infections by 2023 over 2017 levels. To make further progress towards this target and to achieve maximum health gains, this study aims to model optimized investments of available HIV resources. Methods The Optima HIV model was applied to estimate the impact of efficiency strategies to accelerate prevention of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. We estimated the number of infections and deaths that could be prevented by optimizing HIV investments. We optimize across HIV programs, then across service delivery modalities for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), HIV testing, and antiretroviral refill, as well as switching to a lower cost antiretroviral regimen. Findings Under an optimized budget, prioritising HIV testing for the general population followed by key preventative interventions may result in approximately 1,000 more new infections (2% more) being averted by 2023. More infections could be averted with further optimization between service delivery modalities across the HIV cascade. Scaling-up index and self-testing could lead to 100,000 more people getting tested for HIV (25% more tests) with the same budget. By prioritizing Fast-Track, community-based, and facility-based antiretroviral refill options, an estimated 30,000 more people could receive treatment, 17% more than

Initial global-level estimates reported in June 2020 by the World Health Organization suggested that levels of disruption to TB service delivery could be as high as 25%-50% and result in an additional 6·3 million cases of tuberculosis (TB) and an additional 1·4 million TB-related deaths attributable to COVID-19 between 2020 and 2025. Quarterly epidemiological estimates and programmatic TB data capturing disruption levels to each TB service were collected by National TB Programmes in Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Malawi, Mozambique, and Peru. Data from 2019, for a pre-COVID-19 baseline, and throughout 2020, together with the NTP’s COVID-19 response plans, were used within Optima TB models to project TB incidence and deaths over five years because of COVID-19-related disruptions, and the extent to which those impacts may be mitigated through proposed catch-up strategies in each country. Countries reported disruptions of up to 64% to demand-driven TB diagnosis. However, TB service availability disruptions were shorter and less severe, with TB treatment experiencing levels of disruption of up to 21%. We predicted that under the worse-case scenario cumulative new latent TB infections, new active TB infections, and TB-related deaths could increase by up to 23%, 11%, and 20%, respectively, by 2024. However, three of the five countries were on track to mitigate these increases to 3% or less by maintaining TB services in 2021 and 2022 and by implementing proposed catch-up strategies. Indonesia was already experiencing the worse-case scenario, which could lead to 270,000 additional active TB infections and 36,000 additional TB-related deaths by the end of 2024. The COVID-19 pandemic is projected to negatively affect progress towards 2035 End TB targets, especially in countries already off-track. Findings highlight both successful TB service delivery adaptions in 2020 and the need to proactively maintain TB service availability despite potential future waves of more transmissible COVID-19 variants.

BackgroundPrioritizing investments across health interventions is complicated by the nonlinear relationship between intervention coverage and epidemiological outcomes. It can be difficult for countries to know which interventions to prioritize for greatest epidemiological impact, particularly when budgets are uncertain.MethodsWe examined four case studies of HIV epidemics in diverse settings, each with different characteristics. These case studies were based on public data available for Belarus, Peru, Togo, and Myanmar. The Optima HIV model and software package was used to estimate the optimal distribution of resources across interventions associated with a range of budget envelopes. We constructed “investment staircases”, a useful tool for understanding investment priorities. These were used to estimate the best attainable cost-effectiveness of the response at each investment level.FindingsWe find that when budgets are very limited, the optimal HIV response consists of a smaller number of ‘core’ interventions. As budgets increase, those core interventions should first be scaled up, and then new interventions introduced. We estimate that the cost-effectiveness of HIV programming decreases as investment levels increase, but that the overall cost-effectiveness remains below GDP per capita.SignificanceIt is important for HIV programming to respond effectively to the overall level of funding availability. The analytic tools presented here can help to guide program planners understand the most cost-effective HIV responses and plan for an uncertain future.

This allocative efficiency analysis makes the case for increased investment in sex work interventions to minimize future HIV incidence and DALYs. Optimal HIV resource allocation combined with improved program implementation could have even greater HIV impact. Technical assistance is being provided to make the money invested in sex work programs work better and help Niger to achieve a cost-effective and sustainable HIV response.

Background Due to high HIV prevalence among Female Sex Workers (FSWs) in Cameroon (36.5%), this population is especially vulnerable to HIV acquisition and transmission nationwide. Though being prioritized in the national HIV response, it would be relevant to generate statistics on the number of FSWs in order to guide HIV interventions among FSWs. Our objective was to estimate the size of FSWs within hotspots of Cameroon. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted from September-November 2015 in selected cities in Cameroon: Bafoussam, Bamenda, Bertoua, Buea, Douala, Kribi, Limbé, and Yaoundé. A programmatic mapping was used, consisting of interviews with secondary key informants (KI) to identify hotspots of FSWs and their respective estimated numbers. Validation of size estimates was done by interviews with FSW at each hotspot. Size estimations in the councils mapped were extended to others not mapped using a Poisson regression model. Results A total of 2,194 hotspots were identified: Douala (760), Yaoundé (622), Bamenda (263), Bafoussam (194), Kribi (154), Bertoua (140), Limbé (35), and Buea (26). The estimated total number (range) of FSWs was 21,124 (16,079–26,170), distributed per city as follows: Douala 7,557 (5,550–9,364), Yaoundé 6,596 (4,712–8,480), Bafoussam 2,458 (1,994–2,923), Bamenda 1,975 (1,605–2,345), Kribi 1,121 (832–1,408), Bertoua 1,044 (891–1,198), Buea 225 (185–266), and Limbé 148 (110–148). The variability of estimates among cities was also observed within the councils of each city. The national predicted estimate of FSW population was 112,580 (103,436–121,723), covering all councils of Cameroon. An estimate of 1.91% (112,580/5,881,526; 0.47%-3.36%) adult female population in Cameroon could be sex workers. Conclusion There are considerable numbers of FSW in major cities in Cameroon. There is a need to prioritize interventions for HIV prevention toward this population in order to limit the burden of HIV sexual transmission nationwide.