The aim of this research is to analyze the spatial distribution of the population ageing in Bosnia and Herzegovina and identify areas of the country that are particularly vulnerable to negative demographic trends. To achieve the goal of the study, data on the ageing coefficient and ageing index for the period 2013-2020 were used. The geospatial analysis of these indicators was performed using global (Global Moran's I and Getis-Ord General G) and local (Anselin Local Moran's I and Getis-Ord G*) indexes of spatial autocorrelation. The research results confirmed the clustering of both indicators. Ageing coefficient values are clustered in municipalities in western, northwestern, Eastern, and central Bosnia and Herzegovina. Ageing index values are clustered in municipalities in central, western, northwestern, and northeastern Bosnia and Herzegovina. This study provides insight into the research methods of spatial demographic trends and phenomena, and its findings can serve as a basis for future demographic research and development in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In this study, using the methods of spatial autocorrelation in geographic information systems (GIS), an analysis of the spatial distribution of mortality rates in Bosnia and Herzegovina was performed in order to identify high-risk areas with increased mortality and depopulation. Spatial analysis is based on the calculation of global (Global Moran’s I and Getis-Ord General G) and local (Anselin Local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi*) statistical indices of spatial autocorrelation. The values of global statistical indices confirmed a clustering of high mortality values, while local statistical indices confirmed high mortality rates in the municipalities of northwestern and eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina. Conducted research provides an insight into spatial patterns of demographic processes, while results obtained by this research are significant for demographic development and future spatial demographic research in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The beginning of the 21st century in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (henceforth referred to as ?the Federation?) has been characterised by a decrease in the primary-school-age population. As such, the main objective of this work is to define and explain the factors that have influenced the decrease in the primary-school-age population in this part of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The research methodology applied in this work is oriented towards defining the degree of influence of demographic factors on the development of the primary-school-age population in the Federation. By using statistical methods and GIS analysis of statistical data, negative demographic trends were confirmed in the Federation at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century. These trends included intensive migration, a decrease in the total number of inhabitants, a decrease in the birth rate, an increased mortality rate, a decreased rate of natural population change, and the ageing of the population. Due to adverse economic, social, political, and other circumstances after 1995, population emigration has been intensified, most noticeably within the population aged between 20 and 40. The most important result of the research is the fact that the decrease in the natural population dynamics and intensive emigration are the most significant factors influencing the decrease in the primary-school-age population in the Federation. Such negative demographic trends influence the primary education system adversely. In the future, it will be necessary to plan and implement a population-revitalisation process as part of the federation?s overall population policy.
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