Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important indicator of soil quality and directly determines soil fertility. Hence, understanding its spatial distribution and controlling factors is necessary for efficient and sustainable soil nutrient management. In this study, machine learning algorithms including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), cubist regression, random forests (RF), and multiple linear regression (MLR) were chosen for advancing the prediction of SOC. A total of sixty (n = 60) soil samples were collected within the research area at 30 cm soil depth and measured for SOC content using the Walkley–Black method. From these samples, 80% were used for model training and 21 auxiliary data were included as predictors. The predictors include effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC), base saturation (BS), calcium to magnesium ratio (Ca_Mg), potassium to magnesium ratio (K_Mg), potassium to calcium ratio (K_Ca), elevation, plan curvature, total catchment area, channel network base level, topographic wetness index, clay index, iron index, normalized difference build-up index (NDBI), ratio vegetation index (RVI), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) and land surface temperature (LST). Mean absolute error (MAE), root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R2 were used to determine the model performance. The result showed the mean SOC to be 1.62% with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 47%. The best performing model was RF (R2 = 0.68) followed by the cubist model (R2 = 0.51), SVM (R2 = 0.36), ANN (R2 = 0.36) and MLR (R2 = 0.17). The soil nutrient indicators, topographic wetness index and total catchment area were considered an indicator for spatial prediction of SOC in flat homogenous topography. Future studies should include other auxiliary predictors (e.g., soil physical and chemical properties, and lithological data) as well as cover a broader range of soil types to improve model performance.

In precision Agriculture, geostatistical methods as a predictive tool have been extensively utilized. The approach estimates soil properties spatial variability and dependency. This study was carried out in Ovia north east Local Government Area of Edo State of Nigeria in order to map soil properties (Sand, Clay, pH, OC, P, N and CEC) and redict their spatial variability. Twenty-nine (29) soil samples were collected randomly from Typic Kandiudults soil type under three different land use, teak forest plantation, shrub, and arable farm. The soil samples were air-dried and passed through a 2 mm sieve before being analyzed for pH(CaCl2), SOC, Sand, Clay, Phosphorus, Nitrogen, and CEC. Generated data were statistically and geostatistically computed to explain the spatial variability of soil properties. The traditional method of soil analysis and interpretation are tedious, time-consuming with escalating budgets thus geostatical approach. Available phosphorus yielded large variability with CV=57.08% followed by clay content with CV=49.03%. Spherical, Gaussian, Hole Effect model, Stable, Exponential and Circular models were fitted for all the soil parameters. The result revealed that soil pH, Sand content, TN and CEC were moderate spatially autocorrelated with nugget/sill value of 0.32, 0.21, 0.49 and 0.30 respectively.  SOC also gave a moderate spatially autocorrelated with nugget/sill value of 0.44. And Clay and Available phosphorus were strong spatially autocorrelated with nugget/sill value of 0.15 and 0.13 respectively. Cross-validation of the output maps using the semivariogram showed that the interpolation models are superior to assuming mean for any unsampled area. The output maps will help soil users within the area to proffer best management technology to improve crop, fiber and water production.   

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