Wildlife reservoirs of infectious disease are a major source of human-wildlife conflict because of the risk of potential spillover associated with commingling of wildlife and livestock. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, the presence of brucellosis (Brucella abortus) in free-ranging elk (Cervus canadensis) populations is of significant management concern because of the risk of disease transmission from elk to livestock. We identified how spillover risk changes through space and time by developing resource selection functions using telemetry data from 223 female elk to predict the relative probability of female elk occurrence daily during the transmission risk period. We combined these spatiotemporal predictions with elk seroprevalence, demography, and transmission timing data to identify when and where abortions (the primary transmission route of brucellosis) were most likely to occur. Additionally, we integrated our predictions of transmission risk with spatiotemporal data on areas of potential livestock use to estimate the daily risk to livestock. We predicted that approximately half of the transmission risk occurred on areas where livestock may be present (i.e., private property or grazing allotments). Of the transmission risk that occurred in livestock areas, 98% of it was on private ranchlands as opposed to state or federal grazing allotments. Disease prevalence, transmission timing, host abundance, and host distribution were all important factors in determining the potential for spillover risk. Our fine-resolution (250-m spatial, 1-day temporal), large-scale (17,732 km 2 ) predictions of potential elk-to-livestock transmission risk provide wildlife and livestock managers with a useful tool to identify higher risk areas in space and time and proactively focus actions in these areas to separate elk and livestock to reduce spillover risk. Ó 2019 The Authors. The Jo urnal o f
Habitat selection is a multi‐level, hierarchical process that should be a key component in the balance between food acquisition and predation risk avoidance (food–predation trade‐off). However, to date, studies have not fully elucidated how fine‐ and broad‐scale habitat decisions by individual prey can help balance food versus risk. We studied broad‐scale habitat selection by Newfoundland caribou Rangifer tarandus, focusing on trade‐offs between predation risk versus access to forage during the calving and post‐calving period. We improved traditional measures of habitat availability by incorporating fine‐scale movement patterns of caribou into the availability kernel, thus enabling separation of broad and fine scales of selection. Remote sensing and field surveys served to create a spatio‐temporal model of forage availability, whereas GPS telemetry locations from 66 black bears Ursus americanus and 59 coyotes Canis latrans provided models of predation risk. We then used GPS telemetry locations from 114 female caribou to assess food–predation trade‐offs through the prism of our refined model of caribou habitat availability. We noted that migratory movements of caribou were oriented mainly towards habitats with abundant forage and lower risk of bear and (to a lesser extent) coyote encounter. These findings were generally consistent across caribou herds and would not have been evident had we used traditional methods instead of our refined model when estimating habitat availability. We interpret these findings in the context of stereotypical migratory behaviour observed in Newfoundland caribou, which occurs despite the extirpation of wolves Canis lupus nearly a century ago. We submit that caribou are able to balance food acquisition against predation risk using a complex set of factors involving both finer and broader scale selection. Accordingly, our study provides a strong argument for using refined habitat availability estimates when assessing food–predation trade‐offs.
Simple SummaryA wild Sumatran elephant radio-monitored near a conservation center from August 2007–May 2008 used medium- and open-canopy land cover more than expected, but closed canopy forests were used more during the day than at night. When in closed canopy forests, elephants spent more time near the forest edge. Effective elephant conservation strategies in Sumatra need to focus on forest restoration of cleared areas and providing a forest matrix that includes various canopy types.AbstractIncreasingly, habitat fragmentation caused by agricultural and human development has forced Sumatran elephants into relatively small areas, but there is little information on how elephants use these areas and thus, how habitats can be managed to sustain elephants in the future. Using a Global Positioning System (GPS) collar and a land cover map developed from TM imagery, we identified the habitats used by a wild adult female elephant (Elephas maximus sumatranus) in the Seblat Elephant Conservation Center, Bengkulu Province, Sumatra during 2007–2008. The marked elephant (and presumably her 40–60 herd mates) used a home range that contained more than expected medium canopy and open canopy land cover. Further, within the home range, closed canopy forests were used more during the day than at night. When elephants were in closed canopy forests they were most often near the forest edge vs. in the forest interior. Effective elephant conservation strategies in Sumatra need to focus on forest restoration of cleared areas and providing a forest matrix that includes various canopy types.
Generalist predators typically have broad diets, but their diets may become constrained when one species of prey becomes disproportionately available. Yet there is poor understanding regarding whether generalist predators exhibit stereotypic relationships with pulsed prey resources. We used telemetry data from 959 woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788); 146 adult females, 813 calves), 61 coyotes (Canis latrans Say, 1823), and 55 black bears (Ursus americanus Pallas, 1780) to investigate how two generalist predators interacted with caribou neonates on the island of Newfoundland. We examined the similarity of patterns of habitat use between caribou and their predators across time and related this similarity to interspecific spatiotemporal co-occurrence and mortality risk for caribou neonates. The similarity in habitat use between coyotes and caribou mirrored variation in juvenile hazard risk, but had weak association with actual co-occurrence with caribou. Bears and caribou exhibited less similarity in habitat use during the calving season than coyotes and caribou. The relationship between habitat use of bear and caribou did not correspond with either co-occurrence patterns or overall risk for caribou neonates. Our work illustrates how risk for a prey species can be shaped differently based upon differences between the behavioural strategies of generalist predator species.
Climate can have direct and indirect effects on population dynamics via changes in resource competition or predation risk, but this influence may be modulated by density- or phase-dependent processes. We hypothesized that for ungulates, climatic conditions close to parturition have a greater influence on the predation risk of neonates during population declines, when females are already under nutritional stress triggered by food limitation. We examined the presence of phase-dependent climate-predator (PDCP) interactions on neonatal ungulate survival by comparing spatial and temporal fluctuations in climatic conditions, cause-specific mortality and per capita resource limitation. We determined cause-specific fates of 1384 caribou (Rangifer tarandus) from 10 herds in Newfoundland, spanning more than 30 years during periods of numerical increase and decline, while exposed to predation from black bears (Ursus americanus) and coyotes (Canis latrans). We conducted Cox proportional hazards analysis for competing risks, fit as a function of weather metrics, to assess pre- and post-partum climatic influences on survival on herds in population increase and decline phases. We used cumulative incidence functions to compare temporal changes in risk from predators. Our results support our main hypothesis; when caribou populations increased, weather conditions preceding calving were the main determinants of cause-specific mortality, but when populations declined, weather conditions during calving also influenced predator-driven mortality. Cause-specific analysis showed that weather conditions can differentially affect predation risk between black bears and coyotes with specific variables increasing the risk from one species and decreasing the risk from the other. For caribou, nutritional stress appears to increase predation risk on neonates, an interaction which is exacerbated by susceptibility to climatic events. These findings support the PDCP interactions framework, where maternal body condition influences susceptibility to climate-related events and, subsequently, risk from predation.
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