Hydroelectric development and regulation have modified the temporal and spatial distribution of runoff entering the Hudson Bay Complex (HBC). To understand the impacts and future of regulation in this region, the numerical ocean model, NEMO, run with the Arctic and Northern Hemispheric Atlantic (ANHA) configuration, is used to model present day freshwater dynamics associated with river runoff and sea ice melt. The present work establishes the freshwater budget in each subregion of the HBC, in addition to evaluating the sensitivity to model resolution and estimates of river discharge forcing. It is shown that the annually averaged HBC freshwater budget is mainly a balance between river discharge and freshwater advected out of the region, while surface fluxes (ice melt and growth, and precipitation and evaporation) are the dominant term on seasonal time scales. Runoff forcing is found to impact the long term mean volume and freshwater fluxes out of the HBC, while increased resolution has minimal effect on these fluxes, with the exception of the Southampton-Baffin Island gate. Quantitative estimates of turbulent, mean, and Ekman components of freshwater exchange between the interior and boundary regions of Hudson Bay are also presented. We use offline Lagrangian passive tracers to estimate the HBC runoff residence time, which is as long as 32 years.

The Hudson Bay Complex is the outlet for many Canadian rivers, receiving roughly 900 km3/year of river runoff. Historically, studies found a consistent cyclonic flow year‐round in Hudson Bay, due to the geostrophic boundary current induced by river discharge and cyclonic wind forcing that was supported by available observations at that time. Using a high‐resolution ocean general circulation model, we show that in summer, the mean circulation is not cyclonic but consists of multiple small cyclonic and anticyclonic features, with the mean flow directed through the center of the bay. Absolute Dynamic Topography and velocity observations also show this seasonal flow pattern. We find that this summer circulation is driven by geostrophic currents, generated by steric height gradients, which are induced by increased river discharge during the spring freshet, and reinforced by anticyclonic seasonal wind patterns.

The pan-Arctic domain is undergoing some of Earth’s most rapid and significant changes resulting from anthropogenic and climate-induced alteration of freshwater distribution. Changes in terrestrial freshwater discharge entering the Arctic Basin from pan-Arctic watersheds significantly impact oceanic circulation and sea ice dynamics. Historical streamflow records in high-latitude basins are often discontinuous (seasonal or with large temporal gaps) or sparse (poor spatial coverage), however, making trends from observed records difficult to quantify. Our objectives were to generate a more continuous 90-year record (1981–2070) of spatially distributed freshwater flux for the Arctic Basin (all Arctic draining rivers, including the Yukon), suitable for forcing ocean models, and to analyze the changing simulated trends in freshwater discharge across the domain. We established these data as valid during the historical period (1971–2015) and then used projected futures (preserving uncertainty by running a coupled climate-hydrologic ensemble) to analyze long-term (2021–2070) trends for major Arctic draining rivers. When compared to historic trends reported in the literature, we find that trends are projected to nearly double by 2070, with river discharge to the Arctic Basin increasing by 22% (on average) by 2070. We also find a significant trend toward earlier onset of spring freshet and a general flattening of the average annual hydrograph, with a trend toward decreasing seasonality of Arctic freshwater discharge with climate change and regulation combined. The coupled climate-hydrologic ensemble was then used to force an ocean circulation model to simulate freshwater content and thermohaline circulation. This research provides the marine research community with a daily time series of historic and projected freshwater discharge suitable for forcing sea ice and ocean models. Although important, this work is only a first step in mapping the impacts of climate change on the pan-Arctic region.

In this analysis, we examine relative contributions from climate change and river discharge regulation to changes in marine conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex using a subset of five atmospheric forcing scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), river discharge data from the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model, both naturalized (without anthropogenic intervention) and regulated (anthropogenically controlled through diversions, dams, reservoirs), and output from the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean Ice-Ocean model for the 1981–2070 time frame. Investigated in particular are spatiotemporal changes in sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and thickness, and zonal and meridional sea ice drift in response to (i) climate change through comparison of historical (1981–2010) and future (2021–2050 and 2041–2070) simulations, (ii) regulation through comparison of historical (1981–2010) naturalized and regulated simulations, and (iii) climate change and regulation combined through comparison of future (2021–2050 and 2041–2070) naturalized and regulated simulations. Also investigated is use of the diagnostic known as e-folding time spatial distribution to monitor changes in persistence in these variables in response to changing climate and regulation impacts in the Hudson Bay Complex. Results from this analysis highlight bay-wide and regional reductions in sea ice concentration and thickness in southwest and northeast Hudson Bay in response to a changing climate, and east-west asymmetry in sea ice drift response in support of past studies. Regulation is also shown to amplify or suppress the climate change signal. Specifically, regulation amplifies sea surface temperatures from April to August, suppresses sea ice loss by approximately 30% in March, contributes to enhanced sea ice drift speed by approximately 30%, and reduces meridional circulation by approximately 20% in January due to enhanced zonal drift. Results further suggest that the offshore impacts of regulation are amplified in a changing climate.

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