BackgroundThe BED IgG-Capture Enzyme Immunoassay (cBED assay), a test of recent HIV infection, has been used to estimate HIV incidence in cross-sectional HIV surveys. However, there has been concern that the assay overestimates HIV incidence to an unknown extent because it falsely classifies some individuals with non-recent HIV infections as recently infected. We used data from a longitudinal HIV surveillance in rural South Africa to measure the fraction of people with non-recent HIV infection who are falsely classified as recently HIV-infected by the cBED assay (the long-term false-positive ratio (FPR)) and compared cBED assay-based HIV incidence estimates to longitudinally measured HIV incidence.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe measured the long-term FPR in individuals with two positive HIV tests (in the HIV surveillance, 2003–2006) more than 306 days apart (sample size n = 1,065). We implemented four different formulae to calculate HIV incidence using cBED assay testing (n = 11,755) and obtained confidence intervals (CIs) by directly calculating the central 95th percentile of incidence values. We observed 4,869 individuals over 7,685 person-years for longitudinal HIV incidence estimation. The long-term FPR was 0.0169 (95% CI 0.0100–0.0266). Using this FPR, the cross-sectional cBED-based HIV incidence estimates (per 100 people per year) varied between 3.03 (95% CI 2.44–3.63) and 3.19 (95% CI 2.57–3.82), depending on the incidence formula. Using a long-term FPR of 0.0560 based on previous studies, HIV incidence estimates varied between 0.65 (95% CI 0.00–1.32) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.00–1.43). The longitudinally measured HIV incidence was 3.09 per 100 people per year (95% CI 2.69–3.52), after adjustment to the sex-age distribution of the sample used in cBED assay-based estimation.Conclusions/SignificanceIn a rural community in South Africa with high HIV prevalence, the long-term FPR of the cBED assay is substantially lower than previous estimates. The cBED assay performs well in HIV incidence estimation if the locally measured long-term FPR is used, but significantly underestimates incidence when a FPR estimate based on previous studies in other settings is used.
Accurate inference of relatedness between individuals in breeding population contributes to the precision of genetic parameter estimates, effectiveness of inbreeding management and the amount of genetic progress delivered from breeding programs. Pedigree reconstruction has been proven to be an efficient tool to correct pedigree errors and recover hidden relatedness in open pollinated progeny tests but the method can be limited by the lack of parental genotypes and the high proportion of alien pollen from outside the breeding population. Our study investigates the efficiency of sib-ship reconstruction in an advanced breeding population of Eucalyptus nitens with only partially tracked pedigree. The sib-ship reconstruction allowed the identification of selfs (4% of the sample) and the exploration of their potential effect on inbreeding depression in the traits studied. We detected signs of inbreeding depression in diameter at breast height and growth strain while no indications were observed in wood density, wood stiffness and tangential air-dry shrinkage. After the application of a corrected sib-ship relationship matrix, additive genetic variance and heritability were observed to increase where signs of inbreeding depression were initially detected. Conversely, the same genetic parameters for traits that appeared to be free of inbreeding depression decreased in size. It therefore appeared that greater genetic variance may be due, at least in part, to contributions from inbreeding in these studied populations rather than a removal of inbreeding as is traditionally thought.
Genomic selection is expected to enhance the genetic improvement of forest tree species by providing more accurate estimates of breeding values through marker-based relationship matrices compared with pedigree-based methodologies. When adequately robust genomic prediction models are available, an additional increase in genetic gains can be made possible with the shortening of the breeding cycle through elimination of the progeny testing phase and early selection of parental candidates. The potential of genomic selection was investigated in an advanced Eucalyptus nitens breeding population focused on improvement for solid wood production. A high-density SNP chip (EUChip60K) was used to genotype 691 individuals in the breeding population, which represented two seed orchards with different selection histories. Phenotypic records for growth and form traits at age six, and for wood quality traits at age seven were available to build genomic prediction models using GBLUP, which were compared to the traditional pedigree-based alternative using BLUP. GBLUP demonstrated that breeding value accuracy would be improved and substantial increases in genetic gains towards solid wood production would be achieved. Cross-validation within and across two different seed orchards indicated that genomic predictions would likely benefit in terms of higher predictive accuracy from increasing the size of the training data sets through higher relatedness and better utilization of LD.
Development of genome-wide resources for application in genomic selection or genome-wide association studies, in the absence of full reference genomes, present a challenge to the forestry industry, where longer breeding cycles could benefit from the accelerated selection possible through marker-based breeding value predictions. In particular, large conifer megagenomes require a strategy to reduce complexity, whilst ensuring genome-wide coverage is achieved. Using a transcriptome-based reference template, we have successfully developed a high density exome capture genotype-by-sequencing panel for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D.Don), capable of capturing in excess of 80,000 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers with a minor allele frequency above 0.03 in the population tested. This represents approximately 29,000 gene models from a core set of 48,914 probes. A set of 704 SNP markers capable of pedigree reconstruction and differentiating individual genotypes were tested within two full-sib mapping populations. While as few as 70 markers could reconstruct parentage in almost all cases, the impact of missing genotypes was noticeable in several offspring. Therefore, 60 sets of 110 randomly selected SNP markers were compared for both parentage reconstruction and clone differentiation. The performance in parentage reconstruction showed little variation over 60 iterations. However, there was notable variation in discriminatory power between closely related individuals, indicating a higher density SNP marker panel may be required to elucidate hidden relationships in complex pedigrees.
Open-pollinated (OP) mating is frequently used in forest tree breeding due to the relative temporal and financial efficiency of the approach. The trade-off is the lower precision of the estimated genetic parameters. Pedigree/sib-ship reconstruction has been proven as a tool to correct and complete pedigree information and to improve the precision of genetic parameter estimates. Our study analyzed an advanced generation Eucalyptus population from an OP breeding program using single-step genetic evaluation. The relationship matrix inferred from sib-ship reconstruction was used to rescale the marker-based relationship matrix (G matrix). This was compared with a second scenario that used rescaling based on the documented pedigree. The proposed single-step model performed better with respect to both model fit and the theoretical accuracy of breeding values. We found that the prediction accuracy was superior when using the pedigree information only when compared with using a combination of the pedigree and genomic information. This pattern appeared to be mainly a result of accumulated unrecognized relatedness over several breeding cycles, resulting in breeding values being shrunk toward the population mean. Using biased, pedigree-based breeding values as the base with which to correlate predicted GEBVs, resulted in the underestimation of prediction accuracies. Using breeding values estimated on the basis of sib-ship reconstruction resulted in increased prediction accuracies of the genotyped individuals. Therefore, selection of the correct base for estimation of prediction accuracy is critical. The beneficial impact of sib-ship reconstruction using G matrix rescaling was profound, especially in traits with inbreeding depression, such as stem diameter.
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