In this report, we analyze older persons quality of life in Latin America and the Caribbean, its relationship with social protection policies, and how these policies must adapt to respond to population aging. We create a measure of quality of life of older persons which combines healthy life expectancy and income security. For the purposes of this report, we define older persons social protection as the combination of pensions, healthcare, and long-term care. These policies have a direct relationship with older persons quality of life. Pensions reduce old-age poverty. Healthcare improves older persons health status and reduces the risk of poverty due to catastrophic medical expenses. Long-term care improves the wellbeing of care dependent persons and their family caregivers. These positive impacts of older persons social protection are documented in a wide body of literature. For each type of policy, we assess the level of coverage, the quality of the benefits they provide, as well as their current and future sustainability, both from a fiscal and from a social perspective.
Rapid population aging will drive a strong increase in the demand for long-term care services in Latin America and the Caribbean. To inform policy making, in this study we present novel estimates of the number of care dependent older persons in 26 countries of the region. For ten of these countries, estimates are based on existing survey data. For the remaining 16 countries, we use a statistical model to predict the prevalence of care dependence based on the relationship between this condition and age, sex and health status. We also forecast the number of care dependent older persons in the years 2035 and 2050. On average, we find that 14% of the over-65 population is care dependent in 2020, and this average prevalence is predicted to grow to 16% in 2050. Driven mostly by the increase in the size of the older population in the region, the number of care dependent older persons is expected to grow by a factor of three over the same period, from 8 million in 2020 to 23 million in 2050.
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