Since early ages, people tried to predicate earthquakes using simple observations such as strange or atypical animal behavior. In this paper, we study data collected from past earthquakes to give better forecasting for coming earthquakes. We propose the application of artificial intelligent predication system based on artificial neural network which can be used to predicate the magnitude of future earthquakes in northern Red Sea area including the Sinai Peninsula, the Gulf of Aqaba, and the Gulf of Suez. We present performance evaluation for different configurations and neural network structures that show prediction accuracy compared to other methods. The proposed scheme is built based on feed forward neural network model with multi-hidden layers. The model consists of four phases: data acquisition, pre-processing, feature extraction and neural network training and testing. In this study the neural network model provides higher forecast accuracy than other proposed methods. Neural network model is at least 32% better than other methods. This is due to that neural network is capable to capture non-linear relationship than statistical methods and other proposed methods.

It is generally accepted that convergence of the Arabian and African plates is a subduction‐dominated process. However, the subduction scenarios are still debatable. Here we present a 3‐D model of the mantle to a depth of 700 km, based on a joint interpretation of the seismic tomography, residual topography, residual mantle gravity field, and seismicity. At the northwestern edge of the collision zone, we only observe partial underthrust of the Eurasian plate under the West Greater Caucasus. We suggest that this is the initial stage of subduction polarity reversal after the break off of the plate formerly subducted northward. To the southeast, counteracting subduction zones are found beneath northwest Zagros in the south and beneath the East Greater Caucasus and Alborz in the north. This scenario is likely the result of highly buoyant and weak blocks of the Lesser Caucasus, Alborz, and northwest Zagros, which are underlain in the south by the Arabian plate and the Scythian plate and South Caspian from the opposite side. Further to the southeast, a delaminated lithospheric slab is observed under southeast Zagros, while the Arabian and Eurasian plates only partially underthrust East Zagros and Kopet Dagh, respectively. In the southern part of the collision zone under Makran, only remnants of the formerly subducted slabs are found below 200 km.

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Lithosphere extension, which plays an essential role in plate tectonics, occurs both in continents (as rift systems) and oceans (spreading along mid-oceanic ridges). The northern Red Sea area is a unique natural geodynamic laboratory, where the ongoing transition from continental rifting to oceanic spreading can be observed. Here, we analyze travel time data from a merged catalogue provided by the Egyptian and Saudi Arabian seismic networks to build a three-dimensional model of seismic velocities in the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the northern Red Sea and surroundings. The derived structures clearly reveal a high-velocity anomaly coinciding with the Red Sea basin and a narrow low-velocity anomaly centered along the rift axis. We interpret these structures as a transition of lithospheric extension from continental rifting to oceanic spreading. The transitional lithosphere is manifested by a dominantly positive seismic anomaly indicating the presence of a 50–70-km-thick and 200–300-km-wide cold lithosphere. Along the forming oceanic ridge axis, an elongated low-velocity anomaly marks a narrow localized nascent spreading zone that disrupts the transitional lithosphere. Along the eastern margins of the Red Sea, several low-velocity anomalies may represent crustal zone of massive Cenozoic basaltic magmatism.

Abstract. PGA and SA distribution for Patna district is presented considering both classical and zoneless approach through logic tree frame work to capture the epistemic uncertainty. Seismicity parameters are calculated by considering completed and mixed earthquake data. Maximum magnitude was calculated using three methods namely incremental method, Kijko method and regional rupture characteristics approach. Best suitable GMPE was selected by carrying out efficacy test using log likelihood. Uniform hazard response spectra have been compared with Indian standard BIS 1893. PGA varies from 0.38 g to 0.30 g from southern to northern periphery considering 2 % probability of exceedence in 50 years.