SUMMARY. Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

SUMMARY. Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver related morbidity and mortality. In many countries, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological data that are crucial in implementing disease control measures as new treatment options become available. Published literature, unpublished data and expert consensus were used to determine key parameters, including prevalence, viremia, genotype and the number of patients diagnosed and treated. In this study of 15 countries, viremic prevalence ranged from 0.13% in the Netherlands to 2.91% in Russia. The largest viremic populations were in India (8 666 000 cases) and Russia (4 162 000 cases). In most countries, males had a higher rate of infections, likely due to higher rates of injection drug use (IDU). Estimates characterizing the infected population are critical to focus screening and treatment efforts as new therapeutic options become available.

Chronic hepatitis delta represents the most severe form of chronic viral hepatitis. The current treatment of hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection consists of the use of interferons and is largely unsatisfactory. Several new compounds are currently in development for the treatment of HDV infection. However, surrogate markers that can be used to develop clinical endpoints in HDV infection are not well defined. In the current manuscript, we aimed to evaluate the existing data on treatment of HDV infection and to suggest treatment goals (possible ''trial endpoints") that could be used across different clinical trials.

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) causes the most severe form of human viral hepatitis. HDV requires a hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infection to provide HDV with HBV surface antigen envelope proteins. The net effect of HDV is to make the underlying HBV disease worse, including higher rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Accurate assessments of current HDV prevalence have been hampered by the lack of readily available and reliable quantitative assays, combined with the absence of an FDA-approved therapy. We sought to develop a convenient assay for accurately screening populations and to use this assay to determine HDV prevalence in a population with abnormally high rates of HCC. We developed a high throughput quantitative microarray antibody capture (Q-MAC) assay for anti-HDV IgG wherein recombinant HDV delta antigen is printed by microarray on slides coated with a noncontinuous, nanostructured plasmonic gold film, enabling quantitative fluorescent detection of anti-HDV antibody in small aliquots of patient serum. This assay was then used to screen all HBV-infected patients identified in a large randomly selected cohort designed to represent the Mongolian population. We identified two quantitative thresholds of captured antibody that were 100% predictive of the sample either being positive on standard western blot, or harboring HDV RNA detectable by qPCR, respectively. Subsequent screening of the HBV-positive cohort revealed that a remarkable 57% were RNA positive and an additional 4% were positive on western blot alone. Conclusions The Q-MAC assay’s unique performance characteristics make it ideal for population screening. Its application to the Mongolian HBsAg+ population reveals an apparent ~60% prevalence of HDV co-infection amongst these HBV-infected Mongolian subjects, which may help explain the extraordinarily high rate of HCC in Mongolia.

The HDIN registry confirms the severity of hepatitis delta but also highlights the heterogeneity of patient characteristics and clinical outcomes in different regions. There is an urgent need for novel treatment options for HDV infection.

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SUMMARY. The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: (i) increased treatment efficacy while holding the treated population constant and (ii) increased treatment efficacy and increased annual treated population. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. In most countries, the annual treated population had to increase several fold to achieve the largest reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. In most of the studied countries, the majority of patients were born between 1945 and 1985.

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