Can we predict the future by reading others´ minds? This study explores whether attributing others’ personality traits facilitate predictions about their future actions and the temporal order of these future actions. Prior evidence demonstrated that the posterior cerebellar Crus is involved in identifying the temporal sequence of social actions and the person’s traits they imply. Based on this, we hypothesized that this area might also be recruited in the reverse process, that is, knowledge of another person’s personality traits supports predictions of temporal sequences of others’ actions. In this study, participants were informed about the trait of a person, and then had to select actions that were consistent with this information and arrange them in the most likely temporal order. As hypothesized, the posterior cerebellar Crus 1 and 2 were strongly activated when compared to a control task which involved only the selection of actions (without temporal ordering) or which depicted non-social objects and their characteristics. Our findings highlight the important function of the posterior cerebellar Crus in the prediction of social action sequences in social understanding.

Recent studies have documented the involvement of the posterior cerebellar Crus (I & II) in social mentalizing, when sequences play a critical role. We investigated for the first time implicit learning of belief sequences. We created a novel task in which true and false beliefs of other persons were alternated in an adapted serial reaction time (SRT) paradigm (Belief SRT task). Participants observed two protagonists whose beliefs concerning reality were manipulated, depending on their orientation toward the scene (true belief: directly observing the situation) or away from it (false belief: knowing only the prior situation). Unbeknownst to the participants, a fixed sequence related to the two protagonists' belief orientations was repeated throughout the task (Training phase); and to test the acquisition of this fixed sequence, it was occasionally interrupted by random sequences (Test phase). As a nonsocial control, the two protagonists and their orientations were replaced by two different shapes of different colors respectively (Control SRT task). As predicted, the posterior cerebellar Crus I & II were activated during the Belief SRT task and not in the Control SRT task. The Belief SRT task revealed that Crus I was activated during the initial learning of the fixed sequence (Training phase) and when this learned sequence was interrupted by random sequences (Test phase). Moreover, Crus II was activated during occasional reappearance of the learned sequence in the context of sequence violations (Test phase). Our results demonstrate the contribution of the posterior cerebellar Crus during implicit learning and predicting new belief sequences. Keywords Serial reaction time task . False belief . Social sequence learning . Cerebellum . Social cognition Highlights • The posterior cerebellum Crus (I & II) is engaged in implicit belief sequence learning. • The temporo-parietal junction also is activated to support implicit belief sequence learning. • The posterior cerebellum plays a sequence detection role in social domains.

It has been proposed that the cerebellum contributes to social cognition. Based on the view that cerebellar internal models create predictions on motions and actions, we hypothesize that the posterior cerebellum supports identifying temporal sequences of persons’ actions as well as detecting inconsistent actions that violate the implied trait. Participants were required to memorize the temporal order of a set of sentences that implied a personality trait. Importantly, the sentence sets were designed in such a way that the first half of each set involved actions that were consistent with the same trait, while the other half was either consistent or inconsistent with that trait. As expected, we found robust posterior cerebellar activation when memorizing the order of the actions, irrespective of trait consistency, but more crucially also for actions implying an inconsistent trait in comparison to consistent trait actions. We also found that the mPFC and posterior cerebellum were associated with confidence level in retrieving the sequences. This study supports the hypothesis that the posterior cerebellum identifies and predicts the low-level temporal order of actions, and demonstrates for the first time that this area is also involved in the high-level prediction of trait implications of those actions.

Recurrent outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in many countries around the world. We developed a twofold framework in this study, which is composed by one novel descriptive model to depict the recurrent global outbreaks of COVID-19 and one dynamic model to understand the intrinsic mechanisms of recurrent outbreaks. We used publicly available data of cumulative infected cases from 1 January 2020 to 2 January 2021 in 30 provinces in China and 43 other countries around the world for model validation and further analyses. These time series data could be well fitted by the new descriptive model. Through this quantitative approach, we discovered two main mechanisms that strongly correlate with the extent of the recurrent outbreak: the sudden increase in cases imported from overseas and the relaxation of local government epidemic prevention policies. The compartmental dynamical model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Dead and Recovered (SEIDR) Model) could reproduce the obvious recurrent outbreak of the epidemics and showed that both imported infected cases and the relaxation of government policies have a causal effect on the emergence of a new wave of outbreak, along with variations in the temperature index. Meanwhile, recurrent outbreaks affect consumer confidence and have a significant influence on GDP. These results support the necessity of policies such as travel bans, testing of people upon entry, and consistency of government prevention and control policies in avoiding future waves of epidemics and protecting economy.

Recent advances in social neuroscience have highlighted the critical role of the cerebellum and especially the posterior cerebellar Crus in social mentalizing (i.e., theory of mind). Research in the past 5 years has provided growing evidence supporting the view that the posterior cerebellum builds internal action models of our social interactions to predict how other people's actions will be executed, and what our most likely responses to these actions will be. This paper presents an overview of a series of fMRI experiments on novel tasks involving a combination of (a) the learning or generation of chronological sequences of social actions either in an explicit or implicit manner, which (b) require social mentalizing on another person's mental state such as goals, beliefs, and implied traits. Together, the results strongly confirm the central role of the posterior cerebellar Crus in identifying and automatizing action sequencing during social mentalizing, and in predicting future action sequences based on social mentalizing inferences about others. This research program has important implications: It provides for the first time (a) fruitful starting points for diagnosing and investigating social sequencing dysfunctions in a variety of mental disorders which have also been related to cerebellar dysfunctions, (b) provides the necessary tools for testing whether non-invasive neurostimulation targeting the posterior cerebellum has a causal effect on social functioning, and (c) whether these stimulation techniques and training programs guided by novel cerebellar social sequencing insights, can be exploited to increase posterior cerebellar plasticity in order to alleviate social impairments in mental disorders.