[1] Net Arctic Ocean primary production (PP) is expected to increase over this century, due to less perennial sea ice and more available light, but could decrease depending on changes in nitrate (NO 3 ) supply. Here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations performed with 11 Earth System Models are analyzed in terms of PP, surface NO 3 , and sea ice coverage over 1900-2100. Whereas the mean model simulates reasonably well Arctic-integrated PP (511 TgC/yr, 1998(511 TgC/yr, -2005 and projects a mild 58 TgC/yr increase by 2080-2099 for the strongest climate change scenario, models do not agree on the sign of future PP change. However, similar mechanisms operate in all models. The perennial ice loss-driven increase in PP is in most models NO 3 -limited. The Arctic surface NO 3 is decreasing over the 21st century (-2.3˙1 mmol/m 3 ), associated with shoaling mixed layer and with decreasing NO 3 in the nearby North Atlantic and Pacific waters. However, the intermodel spread in the degree of NO 3 limitation is initially high, resulting from >1000 year spin-up simulations. This initial NO 3 spread, combined with the trend, causes a large variation in the timing of oligotrophy onset-which directly controls the sign of future PP change. Virtually all models agree in the open ocean zones on more spatially integrated PP and less PP per unit area. The source of model uncertainty is located in the sea ice zone, where a subtle balance between light and nutrient limitations determines the PP change. Hence, it is argued that reducing uncertainty on present Arctic NO 3 in the sea ice zone would render Arctic PP projections much more consistent.

[1] Simultaneous observations of upper-ocean bubble clouds, and dissolved gaseous nitrogen (N 2 ) and oxygen (O 2 ) from three winter storms are presented and analyzed. The data were collected on the Canadian Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study (C-SOLAS) mooring located near Ocean Station Papa (OSP) at 50°N, 145°W in the NE Pacific during winter of 2003/2004. The bubble field was measured using an upward looking 200 kHz echosounder. Direct estimates of bubble mediated gas fluxes were made using assumed bubble size spectra and the upward looking echosounder data. A one-dimensional biogeochemical model was used to help compare data and various existing models of bubble mediated air-sea gas exchange. The direct bubble flux calculations show an approximate quadratic/cubic dependence on mean bubble penetration depth. After scaling from N 2 /O 2 to carbon dioxide, near surface, nonsupersaturating, air-sea transfer rates, K T , for U 10 > 12 m s −1 fall between quadratic and cubic relationships. Estimates of the subsurface bubble induced air injection flux, V T , show an approximate quadratic/cubic dependence on mean bubble penetration depth. Both K T and V T are much higher than those measured during Hurricane Frances over the wind speed range 12 < U 10 < 23 m s −1 . This result implies that over the open ocean and this wind speed range, older and more developed seas which occur during winter storms are more effective in exchanging gases between the atmosphere and ocean than younger less developed seas which occur during the rapid passage of a hurricane.Citation: Vagle, S., C. McNeil, and N. Steiner (2010), Upper ocean bubble measurements from the NE Pacific and estimates of their role in air-sea gas transfer of the weakly soluble gases nitrogen and oxygen,

The Arctic sea-ice-scape is rapidly transforming. Increasing light penetration will initiate earlier seasonal primary production. This earlier growing season may be accompanied by an increase in ice algae and phytoplankton biomass, augmenting the emission of dimethylsulfide and capture of carbon dioxide. Secondary production may also increase on the shelves, although the loss of sea ice exacerbates the demise of sea-ice fauna, endemic fish and megafauna. Sea-ice loss may also deliver more methane to the atmosphere, but warmer ice may release fewer halogens, resulting in fewer ozone depletion events. The net changes in carbon drawdown are still highly uncertain. Despite large uncertainties in these assessments, we expect disruptive changes that warrant intensified long-term observations and modelling efforts.

Abstract. Motivated by the need to predict how the Arctic atmosphere will change in a warming world, this article summarizes recent advances made by the research consortium NETCARE (Network on Climate and Aerosols: Addressing Key Uncertainties in Remote Canadian Environments) that contribute to our fundamental understanding of Arctic aerosol particles as they relate to climate forcing. The overall goal of NETCARE research has been to use an interdisciplinary approach encompassing extensive field observations and a range of chemical transport, earth system, and biogeochemical models. Several major findings and advances have emerged from NETCARE since its formation in 2013. (1) Unexpectedly high summertime dimethyl sulfide (DMS) levels were identified in ocean water (up to 75 nM) and the overlying atmosphere (up to 1 ppbv) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Furthermore, melt ponds, which are widely prevalent, were identified as an important DMS source (with DMS concentrations of up to 6 nM and a potential contribution to atmospheric DMS of 20 % in the study area). (2) Evidence of widespread particle nucleation and growth in the marine boundary layer was found in the CAA in the summertime, with these events observed on 41 % of days in a 2016 cruise. As well, at Alert, Nunavut, particles that are newly formed and grown under conditions of minimal anthropogenic influence during the months of July and August are estimated to contribute 20 % to 80 % of the 30–50 nm particle number density. DMS-oxidation-driven nucleation is facilitated by the presence of atmospheric ammonia arising from seabird-colony emissions, and potentially also from coastal regions, tundra, and biomass burning. Via accumulation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), a significant fraction of the new particles grow to sizes that are active in cloud droplet formation. Although the gaseous precursors to Arctic marine SOA remain poorly defined, the measured levels of common continental SOA precursors (isoprene and monoterpenes) were low, whereas elevated mixing ratios of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) were inferred to arise via processes involving the sea surface microlayer. (3) The variability in the vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) under both springtime Arctic haze and more pristine summertime aerosol conditions was observed. Measured particle size distributions and mixing states were used to constrain, for the first time, calculations of aerosol–climate interactions under Arctic conditions. Aircraft- and ground-based measurements were used to better establish the BC source regions that supply the Arctic via long-range transport mechanisms, with evidence for a dominant springtime contribution from eastern and southern Asia to the middle troposphere, and a major contribution from northern Asia to the surface. (4) Measurements of ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the Arctic indicate that a major source of these particles is mineral dust, likely derived from local sources in the summer and long-range transport in the spring. In addition, INPs are abundant in the sea surface microlayer in the Arctic, and possibly play a role in ice nucleation in the atmosphere when mineral dust concentrations are low. (5) Amongst multiple aerosol components, BC was observed to have the smallest effective deposition velocities to high Arctic snow (0.03 cm s−1).

Antarctic pack ice is inhabited by a diverse and active microbial community reliant on nutrients for growth. Seeking patterns and overlooked processes, we performed a large-scale compilation of macro-nutrient data (hereafter termed nutrients) in Antarctic pack ice (306 ice-cores collected from 19 research cruises). Dissolved inorganic nitrogen and silicic acid concentrations change with time, as expected from a seasonally productive ecosystem. In winter, salinity-normalized nitrate and silicic acid concentrations (C*) in sea ice are close to seawater concentrations (C w ), indicating little or no biological activity. In spring, nitrate and silicic acid concentrations become partially depleted with respect to seawater (C* < C w ), commensurate with the seasonal build-up of ice microalgae promoted by increased insolation. Stronger and earlier nitrate than silicic acid consumption suggests that a significant fraction of the primary productivity in sea ice is sustained by flagellates. By both consuming and producing ammonium and nitrite, the microbial community maintains these nutrients at relatively low concentrations in spring. With the decrease in insolation beginning in late summer, dissolved inorganic nitrogen and silicic acid concentrations increase, indicating imbalance between their production (increasing or unchanged) and consumption (decreasing) in sea ice. Unlike the depleted concentrations of both nitrate and silicic acid from spring to summer, phosphate accumulates in sea ice (C* > C w ). The phosphate excess could be explained by a greater allocation to phosphorus-rich biomolecules during ice algal blooms coupled with convective loss of excess dissolved nitrogen, preferential remineralization of phosphorus, and/or phosphate adsorption onto metal-organic complexes. Ammonium also appears to be efficiently adsorbed onto organic matter, with likely consequences to nitrogen mobility and availability. This dataset supports the view that the sea ice microbial community is highly efficient at processing nutrients but with a dynamic quite different from that in oceanic surface waters calling for focused future investigations.