In the present research, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for the prediction of surface runoff amounts of the catchment of Al-Masad, in the Western Desert of Iraq. The prediction period was from September 2020 to January 2030. The calibration and verification of this model were performed according to the daily surface runoff data that were measured between 2010 and 2014. Statistical parameters were employed to determine the performance of the model. These parameters were RSR (ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency), and PBias (percent Bias), which were calculated as 0.58%, 0.71%, and 13% for calibration and 0.55%, 0.74% and 11% for verification, respectively. The results from the model verification and calibration prove that this model was sufficient in simulating the catchment surface runoff. Furthermore, the SWAT model was applied for the prediction of daily, monthly, and yearly surface runoff value of the catchment from 2021 to 2030. The results obtained from the model showed that the annual surface runoff volume of the catchment, throughout the period of the simulation, was between 0.65 and 8.3 million m 3 with an average value of 2.622 million m 3 .
The design of dams requires comprehensive studies to ensure the safety and feasibility of these important engineering projects, as any possible failure case may lead to considerable losses in human life and properties. Specifically, analyses should be performed to evaluate seepage, slope stability, and soil liquefaction of large earth dams. In this study, numerical modeling, based on finite element methods, was used to analyze seepage, slope stability, and liquefaction of Makhoul Dam which is a large zoned dam, currently under construction on Tigris River in the north of Iraq. Earthquake shakings impose additional hysteric and short-term loads that may lead to dam failure due to high pore water pressure, piping, and soil liquefaction. Therefore, the dynamic stability of the dam and soil liquefaction were also evaluated, as a result of applying an earthquake shaking to the dam. For the static condition, the dam was safe against internal erosion and slope failure, as the calculated value of the safety factor was greater than the allowable value. However, the results obtained from the dynamic analysis indicated that a possible earthquake, with an acceleration of 0.38g and 10 seconds period, led to upstream slope failure, a relative displacement as high as 2 meters at the dam crest, and soil liquefaction at the upstream slope. As discussed herein, dam redesign or geotextile reinforcement may be considered to reduce the effects of earthquakes on the dam.
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