An actuarial assessment to predict male-to-female marital violence was constructed from a pool of potential predictors in a sample of 589 offenders identified in police records and followed up for an average of almost 5 years. Archival information in several domains (offender characteristics, domestic violence history, nondomestic criminal history, relationship characteristics, victim characteristics, index offense) and recidivism were subjected to setwise and stepwise logistic regression. The resulting 13-item scale, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), showed a large effect size in predicting new assaults against legal or common-law wives or ex-wives (Cohen's d = 1.1, relative operating characteristic area =.77) and was associated with number and severity of new assaults and time until recidivism. Cross-validation and comparisons with other instruments are also reported.

Research has shown that actuarial assessments of violence risk are consistently more accurate than unaided judgments by clinicians, and it has been suggested that the availability of actuarial instruments will improve forensic decision making. This study examined clinical judgments and autonomous review tribunal decisions to detain forensic patients in maximum security. Variables included the availability of an actuarial risk report at the time of decision making, patient characteristics and history, and clinical presentation over the previous year. Detained and transferred patients did not differ in their actuarial risk of violent recidivism. The best predictor of tribunal decision was the senior clinician's testimony. There was also no significant association between the actuarial risk score and clinicians' opinions. Whether the actuarial report was available at the time of decision making did not alter the statistical model of either clinical judgments or tribunal decisions. Implications for the use of actuarial risk assessment in forensic decision making are discussed.Research over the past several years has indicated that unaided clinical judgment can lead to better-than-chance predictions of violence among mentally disordered offenders (e.g.,

An actuarial tool, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), predicts recidivism using only variables readily obtained by frontline police officers. Correctional settings permit more comprehensive assessments. In a subset of ODARA construction and cross-validation cases, 303 men with a police record for wife assault and a correctional system file, the VRAG, SARA, Danger Assessment, and DVSI also predicted recidivism, but the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R) best improved prediction of recidivism, occurrence, frequency, severity, injury, and charges. In 346 new cases, ODARA and PCL-R independently predicted recidivism. An algorithm was derived for a combined instrument, the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (DVRAG), and an experience table is presented (N=649). Results indicated the importance of antisociality in wife assault.

No abstract

Sexual behavior is closely associated with delinquency and crime. Although psychopaths, by definition, have many short-term sexual relationships, it has not been shown that sexuality is a core aspect of psychopathy. A Darwinian view of psychopathy led to the hypothesis that psychopaths have a unique sexuality involving early, frequent, and coercive sex. Our subjects were 512 sex offenders assessed on the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R). Five variables reflecting early, frequent, and coercive sex loaded on the same principal component in exploratory factor analysis on a subset of the sample, whereas PCL-R items pertaining to adult sexual behavior did not. Confirmatory factor analysis of the remaining subjects yielded a measurement model containing three inter-correlated factors - the traditional two PCL-R factors, and coercive and precocious sexuality. Taxometric analyses gave evidence of a natural discontinuity underlying coercive and precocious sexuality. Coercive and precocious sexuality yielded statistically significant associations with other study variables predicted by the Darwinian hypothesis. The present findings are consistent with prior empirical findings and support the hypothesis that psychopathy has been a nonpathological, reproductively viable, alternate life history strategy.

rom a domestic violence victim's fi rst call to police or visit to a women's shelter, through the offender's bail, sentencing, parole, and treatment program, criminal justice offi cers and clinicians must make informed decisions about which cases need the most attention as well as ensure targeted provisions are in place to prevent recurrences of violence. Authors Hilton, Harris, and Rice make a powerful case for using actuarial risk assessments to predict recidivism in male domestic violence offenders. These assessments, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) and the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (DVRAG), are the fi rst in the fi eld. The ODARA/DVRAG system helps criminal justice offi cials and clinicians decide which offenders pose the greatest risk to therefore preclude the most dangerous cases from falling through the cracks. Notably, the authors assert that systematically implementing these tools into public policy will reduce the number of violent assaults on women by their partners.The book draws on the authors' in-depth empirical studies of violent men and their extensive experience with recidivism risk assessment in policing, court cases, offender assessment, and victim services. It is also a user's manual-replete with all the scoring, reporting, and interpreting details needed to effectively use the ODARA/DVRAG system. The inclusion of case examples, FAQs, scoring tools and forms, and sample assessment reports makes this an excellent resource for any professional working directly with domestic violence offenders or training criminal justice offi cers to conduct these risk assessments. Series: Law and Public Policy/Psychology and the Social Sciences.

Actuarial risk assessments yield valid numerical information about violence risk, but research suggests that forensic clinicians prefer to communicate risk using nonnumerical information (i.e., verbal terms such as high risk). In an experimental questionnaire study, 60 forensic clinicians disagreed on the interpretation of nonnumerical terms, and their nonnumerical risk estimates for one group of violent offenders were influenced by comparison with another group. Adding nonnumerical terms to numerical probability statements had no effect on hypothetical forensic decisions. These findings suggest that nonnumerical descriptive terms do not aid effective communication of violence risk and that contextual information might artificially affect estimated risk.

Assessing violence risk among wife assaulters is receiving increasing attention in the literature, but risk assessment tools specifically for this population are just beginning to be developed. The literature on wife assaulters suggests the importance of antisocial personality and behavior. The present study examines psychopathy; the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), a validated actuarial risk assessment tool for violent recidivism; and motives thought to be related to wife assault, in predicting violent recidivism among 88 men with a history of serious wife assault. Violent recidivism was lower among wife assaulters (24%) than among a larger sample of generally violent offenders (44%). Score on the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised was a good predictor of subsequent violence, r = .35, and score on the VRAG was a significantly better predictor, r = .42, area under the curve (AUC) = .75. The prospects for predicting lethal wife assault and violence against specific victims are discussed.