Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity will significantly increase maize yield losses in all agro-ecological zones across both transects but to a much greater extent in lower areas.

Maize (Zea mays) is a major staple food in Africa. However, maize production is severely reduced by damage caused by feeding lepidopteran pests. In East and Southern Africa, Chilo partellus is one of the most damaging cereal stem borers mainly found in the warmer lowland areas. In this study, it was hypothesized that the future distribution and abundance of C. partellus may be affected greatly by the current global warming. The temperature-dependent population growth potential of C. partellus was studied on artificial diet under laboratory conditions at six constant temperatures (15, 18, 20, 25, 28, 30, 32 and 35°C), relative humidity of 75 ± 5% and a photoperiod of L12:L12 h. Several non-linear models were fitted to the data to model development time, mortality and reproduction of the insect species. Cohort updating algorithm and rate summation approach were stochastically used for simulating age and stage structure populations and generate life-table parameters. For spatial analysis of the pest risk, three generic risk indices (index of establishment, generation number and activity index) were visualized in the geographical information system component of the advanced Insect Life Cycle modeling (ILCYM) software. To predict the future distribution of C. partellus we used the climate change scenario A1B obtained from WorldClim and CCAFS databases. The maps were compared with available data on the current distribution of C. partellus in Kenya. The results show that the development times of the different stages decreased with increasing temperatures ranging from 18 to 35°C; at the extreme temperatures, 15 and 38°C, no egg could hatch and no larvae completed development. The study concludes that C. partellus may potentially expands its range into higher altitude areas, highland tropics and moist transitional regions, with the highest maize potential where the species has not been recorded yet. This has serious implication in terms of food security since these areas produce approximately 80% of the total maize in East Africa.

The influence of temperature on the development, mortality, fecundity and life table parameters of two important noctuid African cereal pests, Busseola fusca and Sesamia calamistis was investigated under laboratory conditions. Experiments were carried out with larvae reared on artificial diet under eight constant temperatures (12 ∘ C, 15 ∘ C, 18 ∘ C, 20 ∘ C, 25 ∘ C, 28 ∘ C, 30 ∘ C and 35 ∘ C) and a 12L:12D photoperiod. Life table parameters were calculated using Insect Life Cycle Modelling (ILCYM) software. At 12 ∘ C and 35 ∘ C insects failed to develop. Mean development time for both species decreased with increasing temperature for all stages. Between 15 ∘ C and 30 ∘ C, mean larvae development time is divided by four for both species and adult mean longevity is divided by 1.5 and 2.5, for both sexes of S. calamistis and B. fusca, respectively. Fecundity varied according to temperature; the highest was estimated at 22 ∘ C and 24 ∘ C for B. fusca and S. calamistis, respectively. The lower thermal threshold for B. fusca and S. calamistis was, respectively, 6 ∘ C and 9 ∘ C, while the upper thermal threshold was 31 ∘ C and 32 ∘ C, respectively. The highest intrinsic rate of natural increase for B. fusca was obtained at 25 ∘ C while for S. calamistis it was obtained at 28 ∘ C. The highest net reproduction was obtained at 25 ∘ C for both species, but it was higher for S. calamistis than for B. fusca. The shortest population doubling time was observed at 25 ∘ C for B. fusca and at 28 ∘ C for S. calamistis. The optimum temperature range for development of both species was 25-28 ∘ C. The lower lower thermal threshold found for B. fusca than for S. calamistis and the higher upper thermal threshold found for S. calamistis than for B. fusca explain in part the observed distribution of both species in sub-Saharan Africa with S. calamistis occurring in all the agro-ecological zones but being usually more common than B. fusca in savannah lowland and B. fusca reported mainly from mid and high altitude areas.

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