The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

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Invasive species are believed to spread through a process of stratified dispersal consisting of short-distance diffusive spread around established foci and human mediated long-distance jumps. Brazilian peppertree (Schinus terebinthifolius), native to South America, was introduced twice as an ornamental plant into Florida, USA, just over 100 years ago. A previous study indicated that these two introductions were from genetically differentiated source populations in the native range. In this study, we took advantage of these contrasting genetic signatures to study the spatial spread of Brazilian peppertree across its entire range in Florida. A combination of spatial genetic and geostatistical analyses using chloroplast and nuclear microsatellite markers revealed evidence for both diffusive dispersal and long-distance jumps. Chloroplast DNA haplotype distributions and extensive bands of intra-specific hybridization revealed extensive dispersal by both introduced populations across the state. The strong genetic signature around the original introduction points, the presence of a general southeast to northwest genetic cline, and evidence for short-distance genetic spatial autocorrelation provided evidence of diffusive dispersal from an advancing front, probably by birds and small mammals. In the northernmost part of the range, there were patches having a high degree of ancestry from each introduction, suggesting long-distance jump dispersal, probably by the movement of humans. The evidence for extensive movement throughout the state suggests that Brazilian peppertree will be capable of rapidly recolonizing areas from which it has been eradicated. Concerted eradication efforts over large areas or the successful establishment of effective biocontrol agents over a wide area will be needed to suppress this species.

Global environmental changes (GEC) such as climate change (CC) and climate variability have serious impacts in the tropics, particularly in Africa. These are compounded by changes in land use/land cover, which in turn are driven mainly by economic and population growth, and urbanization. These factors create a feedback loop, which affects ecosystems and particularly ecosystem services, for example plant-insect interactions, and by consequence agricultural productivity. We studied effects of GEC at a local level, using a traditional coffee production area in greater Nairobi, Kenya. We chose coffee, the most valuable agricultural commodity worldwide, as it generates income for 100 million people, mainly in the developing world. Using the coffee berry borer, the most serious biotic threat to global coffee production, we show how environmental changes and different production systems (shaded and sun-grown coffee) can affect the crop. We combined detailed entomological assessments with historic climate records (from 1929–2011), and spatial and demographic data, to assess GEC's impact on coffee at a local scale. Additionally, we tested the utility of an adaptation strategy that is simple and easy to implement. Our results show that while interactions between CC and migration/urbanization, with its resultant landscape modifications, create a feedback loop whereby agroecosystems such as coffee are adversely affected, bio-diverse shaded coffee proved far more resilient and productive than coffee grown in monoculture, and was significantly less harmed by its insect pest. Thus, a relatively simple strategy such as shading coffee can tremendously improve resilience of agro-ecosystems, providing small-scale farmers in Africa with an easily implemented tool to safeguard their livelihoods in a changing climate.

Abstract. Presence of wild host plants of stem borers in cereal-growing areas has been considered as reservoirs of lepidopteran stem borers, responsible for attack of crops during the growing season. Surveys to catalogue hosts and borers as well as to assess the abundance of the hosts were carried out during the cropping and non-cropping seasons in different agro-ecological zones along varying altitude gradient in Kenya. A total of 61 stem borer species belonging to families Noctuidae (25), Crambidae (14), Pyralidae (9), Tortricidae (11) and Cossidae (2) were recovered from 42 wild plant species. Two noctuids, Busseola fusca (Fuller), Sesamia calamistis Hampson, and two crambids, Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) and Chilo orichalcociliellus (Strand) were the four main borer species found associated with maize plants. In the wild, B. fusca was recovered from a limited number of host plant species and among them were Sorghum arundinaceum (Desvaux) Stapf, Setaria megaphylla (Steudel) T. Durand & Schinz, Arundo donax L. and Pennisetum purpureum Schumacher. In contrast, the host range of C. partellus was considerably wider [13 for S. calamistis]. However, the number of larvae of these species was lower in the wild compared to cultivated fi elds, thus the role of natural habitat as a reservoir for cereal stem borers requires further studies. Importance of the wild host plants as well as borer diversity along the altitudinal gradient is discussed.Résumé. Le rôle des plantes hôtes sauvages dans l'abondance des lépidoptères foreurs de graminées selon un gradient altitudinal au Kenya. La présence de plantes hôtes sauvages de foreurs autour des parcelles cultivées a toujours été considérée comme préjudiciable à la production des céréales dans la mesure où elles constituent des réservoirs pour les foreurs. Des enquêtes ont été menées au Kenya, pendant et en dehors des périodes culturales, selon un gradient altitudinal, afi n de déterminer le rôle de ces plantes hôtes sur les populations de ravageurs. Soixante et une espèces de lépidoptères foreurs appartenant aux familles des Noctuidae (25), Crambidae (14), Pyralidae (9), Tortricidae (11) et Cossidae (2) ont été récoltées sur 42 plantes hôtes sauvages. Les principales espèces de foreurs associées au maïs sont Busseola fusca (Fuller) et Sesamia calamistis Hampson (Noctuidae) et Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) et Chilo orichalcociliellus (Strand) (Crambidae). Dans les habitats sauvages, B. fusca a été trouvé sur un nombre restreint de plantes hôtes sauvages telles que Sorghum arundinaceum (Desvaux) Stapf, Setaria megaphylla (Steudel) T. Durand & Schinz, Arundo donax L. and Pennisetum purpureum Schumacher. A l`inverse, S. calamistis et C. partellus ont été trouvées associées à plus de plantes hôtes sauvages [S. calamistis (13), C. partellus (5)]. Toutefois, le nombre total de chenilles de ces quatre espèces de ravageur trouvé dans les habitats sauvages est très inférieur à celui trouvé dans les parcelles cultivées, aussi le rôle des habitats sauvages en tant que réservoir pour les lépidopt...

Maize (Zea mays) is a major staple food in Africa. However, maize production is severely reduced by damage caused by feeding lepidopteran pests. In East and Southern Africa, Chilo partellus is one of the most damaging cereal stem borers mainly found in the warmer lowland areas. In this study, it was hypothesized that the future distribution and abundance of C. partellus may be affected greatly by the current global warming. The temperature-dependent population growth potential of C. partellus was studied on artificial diet under laboratory conditions at six constant temperatures (15, 18, 20, 25, 28, 30, 32 and 35°C), relative humidity of 75 ± 5% and a photoperiod of L12:L12 h. Several non-linear models were fitted to the data to model development time, mortality and reproduction of the insect species. Cohort updating algorithm and rate summation approach were stochastically used for simulating age and stage structure populations and generate life-table parameters. For spatial analysis of the pest risk, three generic risk indices (index of establishment, generation number and activity index) were visualized in the geographical information system component of the advanced Insect Life Cycle modeling (ILCYM) software. To predict the future distribution of C. partellus we used the climate change scenario A1B obtained from WorldClim and CCAFS databases. The maps were compared with available data on the current distribution of C. partellus in Kenya. The results show that the development times of the different stages decreased with increasing temperatures ranging from 18 to 35°C; at the extreme temperatures, 15 and 38°C, no egg could hatch and no larvae completed development. The study concludes that C. partellus may potentially expands its range into higher altitude areas, highland tropics and moist transitional regions, with the highest maize potential where the species has not been recorded yet. This has serious implication in terms of food security since these areas produce approximately 80% of the total maize in East Africa.

Cotesia fl avipes Cameron (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was fi rst imported into Kenya in 1991 from Pakistan for control of Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae). First releases were made at the Kenya coast in 1993 and a few recoveries of the parasitoid were made the following year. Additional foreign exploration for C. fl avipes was conducted in central India in 1996 and 1998, which resulted in additional importation of the parasitoid for subsequent releases in eastern and southern Africa. Region-wide releases commenced with releases in Mozambique in 1996

Abstract. The spatial synchrony and the temporal auto-correlationship of the exotic stemborer Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and the indigenous Sesamia calamistis Hampson (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and Chilo orichalcociliellus (Strand) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), and crosscorrelationship with their indigenous and introduced larval parasitoids Cotesia sesamiae (Cameron) and Cotesia fl avipes Cameron (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was studied using 3-year data collected in coastal Kenya. An autoregressive model was used to study the effect of climatic stochasticity or population density-dependent factors on stemborer populations. It appeared that rainfall did have a direct impact on stemborers in the south coast and an indirect one in the north coast. Spatial nonparametric correlation functions (SNCF) and cross-correlation functions (SNCCF) were applied for spatial synchrony analysis. The regional synchrony of Ch. partellus and S. calamistis decreased and that of Ch. orichalcociliellus increased after the introduction of Co. fl avipes. The positive crosscorrelation coeffi cient between stemborers and parasitoids suggests a synchrony between the pest and its natural enemy. , ont été étudiés à partir de données collectées sur trois ans dans la région côtière du Kenya. Un modèle d'auto régression a été utilisé afi n d'étudier l'effet stochastique du climat ou les facteurs dépendants de la densité de population sur les foreurs. Il est apparu que la pluie avait un impact direct au sud ou indirect au nord de la région étudiée sur les populations de foreurs. Des fonctions non-paramétriques de corrélation spatiale et croisée ont été appliquées pour l'analyse du degré de synchronie spatiale. Le degré de synchronie régionale des populations de Ch. partellus et de celles de S. calamistis a diminué alors qu'il a augmenté pour celles de Ch. orichalcociliellus après l'introduction de Co. fl avipes. Le coeffi cient positif d'auto corrélation entre les populations de foreurs et celles des parasitoïdes suggère un certain degré de synchronie entre les insectes ravageurs et leurs ennemis naturels.