The results of the International Permafrost Association's International Polar Year Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) project are presented based on field measurements from Russia during the IPY years (2007-09) and collected historical data. Most ground temperatures measured in existing and new boreholes show a substantial warming during the last 20 to 30 years. The magnitude of the warming varied with location, but was typically from 0.58C to 28C at the depth of zero annual amplitude. Thawing of Little Ice Age permafrost is ongoing at many locations. There are some indications that the late Holocene permafrost has begun to thaw at some undisturbed locations in northeastern Europe and northwest Siberia. Thawing of permafrost is most noticeable within the discontinuous permafrost domain. However, permafrost in Russia is also starting to thaw at some limited locations in the continuous permafrost zone. As a result, a northward displacement of the boundary between continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones was observed. This data set will serve as a baseline against which to measure changes of near-surface permafrost temperatures and permafrost boundaries, to validate climate model scenarios, and for temperature reanalysis.

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GIS-based data sets were used to analyze the structure of the forest line at the landscape level in the lowlands of the Usa River Basin, in northeast European Russia. Vegetation zones in the area range from taiga in the south to forest-tundra and tundra in the north. We constructed logistic regression models to predict forest location at spatial scales varying from 1 3 1 km to 25 3 25 km grid cells. Forest location was explained by July mean temperature, ground temperature (permafrost), yearly minimum temperature, and a Topographic Wetness Index (soil moisture conditions). According to the models, the forest line follows the þ13.98C mean July temperature isoline, whereas in other parts of the Arctic it usually is located between þ10 to þ128C. It is hypothesized that the anomalously high temperature isoline for the forest line in Northeast European Russia is due to the inability of local ecotypes of spruce to grow on permafrost terrain. Observed patterns depend on spatial scale, as the relative significance of the explanatory variables varies between models implemented at different scales. Developed models indicate that with climate warming of 38C by the end of the 21st century temperature would not limit forest advance anywhere in our study area.

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