State of the Climate in 2013

Blunden, Jessica; Arndt, Derek S.; Willett, Kate M.; Dolman, A. J.; Hurst, D. F.; Rennie, Jared; Thorne, Peter; Donat, Markus G.; Dunn, Robert; Long, Craig S.; Christy, John R.; Noetzli, Jeannette; Christiansen, Hanne H.; Gugliemin, Mauro; Romanovsky, V. E.; Shiklomanov, N. I.; Smith, Sharon L.; Lin, Zhao; Robinson, David A.; Pelto, Mauri; Mears, C. A.; Ho, Shu Oeng Ben; Liang, Peng; Wang, Junhong; Vose, Russell S.; Hilburn, Kyle; Yin, Xungang; Kruk, Michael C.; Becker, Andreas; Foster, Michael J.; Ackerman, Steven A.; Heidinger, A. K.; Maddux, B. C.; Stengel, Martin; Kim, Hyuanjun; Oki, Taikan; Rodell, Matthew; Chambers, D. P.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Dorigo, Wouter; Chung, Daniel; Parinussa, Robert; Reimer, Christoph; Hahn, Sebastian; Liu, Y. Y.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Jeu, Rochard A.M. de; Paulik, Christoph; Wang, Guojie; Allan, Rob; Folland, Chris K.; Tobin, Isabelle; Berrisford, Paul; Vautard, Robert; McVicar, Tim R.; Kratz, David P.; Stackhouse, Paul W.; Wong, Takmeng; Sawaengphokhai, P.; Wilber, Anne C.; Gupta, S. K.; Loeb, Norman G.; Lantz, Kathy; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Hall, B. D.; Montzka, S. A.; Dutton, G. S.; Mühle, Jens; Elkins, James W.; Benedetti, Angela; Jones, Luke; Kaiser, Johannes; Morcrette, J.-J.; Rémy, Samuel; Weber, Mark; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; der, J A Ronald van; Coldewey‐Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali; Frith, S. M.; Loyola, Diego; Wild, Jeannette; Davis, Sean; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Cooper, O. R.; Ziemke, J. R.; Flemming, Johannes; Inness, Antje; Quegan, S.; Ciais, P.; Santoro, Michael Melton; Pinty, B.; Gobron, Nadine; Werf, Guido R. van der; Newlin, Michele L.; Gregg, Margarita C.; Xue, Yan; Hu, Zeng Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Banzon, Viva F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Rayner, Nick; Johnson, Gregory C.; Lyman, John M.; Willis, J. K.; Boyer, Tim; Antonov, John I.; Good, Simon; Domingues, Catia M.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Yu, Lisan; Jin, Xiangze; Lagerloef, Gary; Kao, Hsun Ying; Reagan, James R.; Schmid, Claudia; Locarnini, R. A.; Lumpkin, Rick; Goñi, Gustavo; Dohan, Kathleen; Baringer, Molly O.; McCarthy, Gerard; Lankhorst, Matthias; Smeed, David A.; Send, Uwe; Rayner, Darren; Johns, William E.; Meinen, Christopher S.; Cunningham, Stuart A.; Kanzow, Torsten; Frajka‐Williams, Eleanor; Marotzke, Jochem; Garzoli, Silvia L.; Dong, Shenfu; Volkov, Denis; Hobbs, Will; Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.; Leuliette, E. W.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B. D.; Mitchum, Gary T.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; Marra, John J.; Ménendez, Melisa; Sweet, William; Feely, Richard A.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Sabine, Christopher L.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Takahashi, Taro; Khatiwala, S.; Franz, Bryan A.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Siegel, David A.; Werdell, P. Jeremy; Diamond, Howard J.; Bell, Gerald D.; L’Heureux, Michelle; Halpert, Michael S.; Baxter, Stephen; Gottschalck, Jonathan; Landsea, Chris; Goldenberg, Stanley B.; Pasch, Richard J.; Blake, Eric S.; Schemm, Jae; Kimberlain, Todd B.; Schreck, Carl J.; Evans, Thomas E.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Gleason, Karin; Trewin, Blair; Lorrey, Andrew; Fauchereau, Nicolas; Chappell, Petra R.; Ready, S. E.; Knaff, John A.; Lin, I‐I; Wang, Bin; Mullan, A. Brett; Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Wang, Chunzai; Fogarty, Chris; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Luo, Jie; Lander, Mark A.; Guard, Charles P.; Jeffries, Martin O.; Richter‐Menge, Jacqueline A.; Overland, James E.; Key, Jeff; Hanna, Edward; Hanssen-Bauer, Inger; Kim, B. M.; Kim, S. J.; Walsh, John E.; Wang, M.; Bhatt, Uma S.; Liu, Yinghui; Stone, Robert S.; Cox, Christopher; Walden, Von P.; Francis, Jennifer A.; Vavrus, Steve; Tang, Qi; Bernhard, Germar; Manney, G. L.; Grooß, Jnes Uwe; Müller, Rolf; Heikkilä, Anu; Johnsen, Bjørn; Koskela, Tapani; Lakkala, Kaisa; Svendby, Tove Marit; Dahlback, Arne; Bruhwiler, Lori; Laurila, Tuomas; Worthy, Doug; Quinn, Patricia K.; Stohl, Andreas; Baklanov, Alexander; Flanner, M.; Herber, Andreas; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Law, Kathy S.; Schmale, Julia; Sharma, S.; Vestreng, Vigdis; Salzen, Knut von; Perovich, D. K.; Gerland, Sebastian; Hendricks, Stefan; Meier, Walter N.; Nicolaus, Marcel; Tschudi, M. A.; Timmermans, M. L.; Ashik, Igor; Фролов, И. Э.; Ha, Ho Kyung; Ingvaldsen, Randi; Kikuchi, Takashi; Kim, T. W.; Krishfield, Richard A.; Loeng, Harald; Nishino, Shigeto; Pickart, Robert S.; Polyakov, Igor V.; Rabe, Benjamin; Schauer, Ursula; Schlosser, Peter; Smethie, William M.; Sokolov, Vladimir; Steele, Michael; Toole, John M.; Williams, William J.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.; Zimmerman, Susan; Cross, Jessica N.; Evans, Wiley; Anderson, Leif G.; Yamamoto‐Kawai, Michiyo; Derksen, Chris; Brown, Ross; Luojus, Kari; Sharp, Martin; Wolken, G. J.; Geai, M. L.; Burgess, David; Arendt, A. A.; Wouters, Bert; Kohler, Jack; Andreassen, Liss M.; Tedesco, Marco; Box, Jason E.; Cappelen, John; Fettweis, Xavier; Jensen, T. S.; Mote, Thomas L.; Rennermalm, Å. K.; Smith, L. C.; Wal, R. S. W. van de; Wahr, John; Duguay, Claude R.; Brown, Laura C.; Kang, Kyun Kuk; Pour, Homa Kheyrollah; Streletskiy, D. A.; Drozdov, Dmitry; Малкова, Г. В.; Oberman, N. G.; Kholodov, Alexander; Marchenko, S. S.; Fogt, Ryan L.; Scambos, Ted; Clem, Kyle R.; Barreira, Sandra; Colwell, Steve; Keller, Linda M.; Lazzara, Matthew A.; Setzer, Alberto; Bromwich, David H.; Wang, Sheng-Hung; Wang, Lei; Liu, Hongxing; Wang, Shujie; Shu, Song; Massom, Robert A.; Reid, Phillip; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Lieser, Jan L.; Newman, Paul A.; Kramarova, N. A.; Nash, Eric R.; Pitts, Mıchael; Johnson, Bryan; Santee, M. L.; Braathen, Geir; Campbell, Garret G.; Pope, Allen; Haran, T. M.; Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira; Renwick, James; Thiaw, Wassila M.; Weaver, Scott J.; Vincent, Lucie A.; Phillips, David W.; Whitewood, Robert; Crouch, Jake; Heim, Richard R.; Fenimore, Chris; Augustine, John; Pascual, Ramón; Albanil, Adelina; Vázquez, Jorge; Lobato, René; Amador, Jorge A.; Alfaro, Eric J.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Durán‐Quesada, Ana María; Calderón, Blanca; Rivera, Ingrid L.; Vega, Carla; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Taylor, Michael A.; Trotman, Adrian; Porter, Avalon O.; Gonzalez, Idelmis T.; Spence, Jacqueline; McLean, Natalie; Campbell, Jayaka D.; Brown, Glenroy; Butler, Mary; Blenman, Rosalind C.; Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P.; Marcellin-Honore’, Vernie; Martínez, Rodney; Arévalo, Juan; Carrasco, Gualberto; Euscátegui, Christian; Bazo, Juan; Nieto, Juan J.; Zambrano, Eduardo; Marengo, José A.; Alves, Lincoln M.; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Ronchail, Josyane; Bidegain, Mario; Stella, José Luis; Penalba, Olga Clorinda; Kabidi, Khadija; Sayouri, Amal; Ebrahim, A.; James, Ibrahim; Dekaa, Francis S.; Sima, Fatou; COULIBALY, Kolotioloma Alama; Gitau, Wilson; Chang’a, Ladislaus Benedict; Oludhe, Christopher; Ogallo, Laban; Atheru, Zachary; Ambenje, P; Kijazi, Agnes Lawrence; Ng’ongolo, Hashim K.; Luhunga, Philbert; Levira, Pamela William; Kruger, Andries; McBride, Charlotte; Rakotomavo, Zo; Jumaux, Guillaume; Trachte, Katja; Bissolli, Peter; Obregón, André; Nitsche, H.; Parker, D. E.; Kennedy, John J.; Kendon, Michael; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Şensoy, Serhat; Hovhannisyan, Diana; Bulygina, Olga; Khoshkam, Mahbobeh; Korshunova, Natalia N.; Oyunjargal, Lamjav; Park, E. Hyung; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Rajeevan, M.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Revadekar, J. V.; Srivastava, Arvind K.; Yamada, Ryūji; Zhang, Peiqun; Tanaka, Sadahiko; Yoshimatsu, Kazuyoshi; Ohno, Hiroshi; Ganter, Catherine; Macara, Gregor; McGree, Simon; Tobin, Skie

doi:10.1175/2014bamsstateoftheclimate.1

Cited by 103 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 270 publications

(364 reference statements)

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“…The reduction in sea ice and increase in upper-ocean temperature for all the warming cases (Figs. 5a,c) is in contrast to recent observations showing increased ice production around Antarctica (Parkinson and Cavalieri 2012;Bintanja et al 2013;Turner et al 2013;Blunden et al 2014) and an ongoing cooling trend of Southern Ocean surface waters (e.g., Latif et al 2013;Fan et al 2014). Mechanisms driving these observed trends are poorly understood.…”

Section: A Surface and Sea Ice Responsementioning

confidence: 71%

Sensitivity of Antarctic Bottom Water to Changes in Surface Buoyancy Fluxes

et al. 2015

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The influence of freshwater and heat flux changes on Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) properties are investigated within a realistic bathymetry coupled ocean-ice sector model of the Atlantic Ocean. The model simulations are conducted at eddy-permitting resolution where dense shelf water production dominates over open ocean convection in forming AABW. Freshwater and heat flux perturbations are applied independently and have contradictory surface responses, with increased upper-ocean temperature and reduced ice formation under heating and the opposite under increased freshwater fluxes. AABW transport into the abyssal ocean reduces under both flux changes, with the reduction in transport being proportional to the net buoyancy flux anomaly south of 608S.Through inclusion of shelf-sourced AABW, a process absent from most current generation climate models, cooling and freshening of dense source water is facilitated via reduced on-shelf/off-shelf exchange flow. Such cooling is propagated to the abyssal ocean, while compensating warming in the deep ocean under heating introduces a decadal-scale variability of the abyssal water masses. This study emphasizes the fundamental role buoyancy plays in controlling AABW, as well as the importance of the inclusion of shelf-sourced AABW within climate models in order to attain the complete spectrum of possible climate change responses.

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Section: A Surface and Sea Ice Responsementioning

confidence: 71%

Sensitivity of Antarctic Bottom Water to Changes in Surface Buoyancy Fluxes

et al. 2015

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“…4 shows the HWMI tx for 2013 when Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil experienced intense heat waves. Specifically, Argentina and Uruguay experienced extremely warm temperatures at the end of 2013 (Blunden and Arndt, 2014), whereas the cities of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro (south-eastern Brazil) experienced their warmest January and February at the beginning of 2014 (Blunden and Arndt, 2015). Note that 2013 refers to the period July 2013-June 2014, as explained in the method section.…”

Section: Heat Wavementioning

confidence: 99%

Magnitude and frequency of heat and cold waves in recent decades: the case of South America

Ceccherini

Russo

Ameztoy

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In recent decades there has been an increase in magnitude and occurrence of heat waves and a decrease of cold waves, both of which may be related to the anthropogenic influence. This study describes the extreme temperature regime of heat waves and cold waves across South America over recent years . Temperature records come from the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD), a climatological data set produced by the National Climatic Data Center that provides records of daily maximum and minimum temperatures acquired worldwide. The magnitude of heat waves and cold waves for each GSOD station are quantified on an annual basis by means of the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and the Cold Wave Magnitude Index. Results indicate an increase in intensity and in frequency of heat waves, especially in the last 10 years. Conversely, no significant changes are detected for cold waves. In addition, the trend of the annual temperature range (i.e. yearly mean of T max -yearly mean of T min ) is positive -up to 1 • C per decade -over the extratropics and negative -up to 0.5 • C per decade -over the tropics.

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“…A latitudinal transect along European mountains was later installed in the framework of the PACE project (Sollid et al, 2000;Harris et al, 2001bHarris et al, , 2009. A warming trend clearly appeared over the past decade in most of the existing boreholes (Blunden and Arndt, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling rock wall permafrost degradation in the Mont Blanc massif from the LIA to the end of the 21st century

et al. 2017

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Abstract. High alpine rock wall permafrost is extremely sensitive to climate change. Its degradation has a strong impact on landscape evolution and can trigger rockfalls constituting an increasing threat to socio-economical activities of highly frequented areas; quantitative understanding of permafrost evolution is crucial for such communities. This study investigates the long-term evolution of permafrost in three vertical cross sections of rock wall sites between 3160 and 4300 m above sea level in the Mont Blanc massif, from the Little Ice Age (LIA) steady-state conditions to 2100. Simulations are forced with air temperature time series, including two contrasted air temperature scenarios for the 21st century representing possible lower and upper boundaries of future climate change according to the most recent models and climate change scenarios. The 2-D finite element model accounts for heat conduction and latent heat transfers, and the outputs for the current period (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) are evaluated against borehole temperature measurements and an electrical resistivity transect: permafrost conditions are remarkably well represented. Over the past two decades, permafrost has disappeared on faces with a southerly aspect up to 3300 m a.s.l. and possibly higher. Warm permafrost (i.e. > −2 • C) has extended up to 3300 and 3850 m a.s.l. in N and S-exposed faces respectively. During the 21st century, warm permafrost is likely to extend at least up to 4300 m a.s.l. on S-exposed rock walls and up to 3850 m a.s.l. depth on the N-exposed faces. In the most pessimistic case, permafrost will disappear on the S-exposed rock walls at a depth of up to 4300 m a.s.l., whereas warm permafrost will extend at a depth of the N faces up to 3850 m a.s.l., but possibly disappearing at such elevation under the influence of a close S face. The results are site specific and extrapolation to other sites is limited by the imbrication of local topographical and transient effects.

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State of the Climate in 2013

Cited by 103 publications

References 270 publications

Sensitivity of Antarctic Bottom Water to Changes in Surface Buoyancy Fluxes

Sensitivity of Antarctic Bottom Water to Changes in Surface Buoyancy Fluxes

Magnitude and frequency of heat and cold waves in recent decades: the case of South America

Modelling rock wall permafrost degradation in the Mont Blanc massif from the LIA to the end of the 21st century

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