Magnitude and frequency of heat and cold waves in recent decades: the case of South America

Ceccherini, Guido; Russo, Simone; Ameztoy, Iban; Romero, Claudia P.; Carmona-Moreno, C.

doi:10.5194/nhess-16-821-2016

Cited by 47 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(38 reference statements)

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“…In particular, Ceccherini et al . () and Bitencourt et al . () highlighted the increase in intensity and in the frequency of HWs in South America and in Brazil since 2000, associated with a faster increasing in maximum temperature compared to the minimum temperature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic and synoptic characterization of heat waves in Brazil

Geirinhas

Trigo

Libonati

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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According to the latest global and regional circulation models, the probability of occurrence of large heat waves (HWs), such as the 2003 European or the 2010 Russian events will increase significantly in the following decades under most climate scenarios. Currently, there are numerous studies for the Northern Hemisphere characterizing HWs and evaluating their impacts in several areas such as public health, economy, and agriculture. However, over South America, and in particular for Brazil, similar analysis is lacking despite its large geographical extension and numerous population potentially affected. Here we perform an assessment of HW events and characteristics recorded in six large Brazilian cities during the last five decades. The performed analysis reveals the existence of positive and significant trends in HW frequency since the 1980s, particularly for the cities of São Paulo, Manaus, and Recife. Over the last decades, Brasília was the city that recorded the highest number of days per year under a HW regime, contrasting with Rio de Janeiro that recorded the lowest value. The assessment of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with summer HWs, indicated for Porto Alegre, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Brasília the presence of well‐marked concentric and positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies followed by positive 850 hPa temperature anomalies. These anomalies are likely associated with quasi‐stationary anticyclonic systems promoted by anomalous westward displacements of the South Atlantic Subtropical High System which are related to a weakening of other transients (and non‐transient) systems such the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. For Manaus, the identified anomalies are linked to a northward displacement of the ITCZ. This configuration is compatible with an increase in solar radiative pattern and decreased soil moisture, enhancing surface temperature values, possibly associated with positive feedback mechanisms between soil and the atmosphere.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic and synoptic characterization of heat waves in Brazil

Geirinhas

Trigo

Libonati

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…GSOD stations with less than 30-year records and with more than 30 % of gaps have been excluded from our analysis (for further details see Ceccherini et al, 2016). As a result, 260 GSOD stations out of 958 satisfy these conditions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…climate.gov/global-summary-day-gsod). GSOD has been already employed to assess heat waves magnitude at global (Mishra et al, 2015) and local (Ceccherini et al, 2016) scale. Historical data are generally available for the last 80 years, with data from 1973 onwards being the most complete.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Heat waves in Africa 1981–2015, observations and reanalysis

Ceccherini

Russo

Ameztoy

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The purpose of this article is to show the extreme temperature regime of heat waves across Africa over recent years . Heat waves have been quantified using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId), which merges the duration and the intensity of extreme temperature events into a single numerical index. The HWMId enables a comparison between heat waves with different timing and location, and it has been applied to maximum and minimum temperature records. The time series used in this study have been derived from (1) observations from the Global Summary of the Day (GSOD) and (2)

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“…Ceccherini et al . () reported increased magnitude and more frequent HWs in South America, manly in the last 10 years, but no significant changes were found in CWs . Marengo and Camargo (), Salviano et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

The climatology of cold and heat waves in Brazil from 1961 to 2016

Bitencourt

Fuentes

Franke

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Extreme temperatures have caused various damages to society around the world. In Brazil, an example of that is the impact of cold and heat waves on public health. In order to analyse the temporal and spatial variability of such events, this study applied a single criterion to identify cold and heat waves. The study collected data on the events from daily temperature records from 264 weather stations over 56 years (1961–2016). The following parameters were used to describe each event: frequency, duration, severity, and intensity. The results showed that in all the Brazilian regions the frequency of heat waves increased and that of cold waves decreased between the years 1961 and 2016. The number of heat waves per year, notably, was greater than that of cold waves, and the mean duration of heat waves was about 1 day longer than that of cold waves. Additionally, it was found that cold waves were more severe and intense in areas often reached by cold air masses with temperatures below zero in most of Southern Brazil. In terms of severity and intensity of heat waves, two different configurations were observed: They were more severe in the Southern region and more intense in the Midwestern region of the country, and not so expressive in the Northern and Northeastern regions. Those findings justify the need for continuous updating of public policies focused on sectors often affected by cold and heat.

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Magnitude and frequency of heat and cold waves in recent decades: the case of South America

Cited by 47 publications

References 29 publications

Climatic and synoptic characterization of heat waves in Brazil

Climatic and synoptic characterization of heat waves in Brazil

Heat waves in Africa 1981–2015, observations and reanalysis

The climatology of cold and heat waves in Brazil from 1961 to 2016

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