Heat waves in Africa 1981–2015, observations and reanalysis

Ceccherini, Guido; Russo, Simone; Ameztoy, Iban; Marchese, Andrea Francesco; Carmona-Moreno, C.

doi:10.5194/nhess-17-115-2017

Cited by 103 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Moreover, the effect of global warming under 2 • C level over the region is higher than that of 1.5 • C. This warming will most likely lead to an increase in the length and frequency of heat waves over the region (Russo et al 2016, Ceccherini et al 2017, Dosio 2017. Although the spatial patterns of projected changes in temperature are similar between seasons, the expected warming extent is greater during JJAS compared MAM and annual timescales.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Osima

Indasi

Zaroug

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

111

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We analyze the potential effect of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 • C and 2 • C above pre-industrial levels (1861−1890) on mean temperature and precipitation as well as intra-seasonal precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa. We used a large, 25-member regional climate model ensemble from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment and show that, compared to the control period of 1971−2000, annual mean near-surface temperature is projected to increase by more than 1 • C and 1.5 • C over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, under GWLs of 1.5 • C and 2 • C respectively. The highest temperature increases are projected in the northern region, covering most parts of Sudan and northern parts of Ethiopia, and the lowest temperature increases are projected over the coastal belt of Tanzania. However, the projected mean surface temperature difference between 2 • C and 1. 5 • C GWLs is higher than 0.5 • C over nearly all land points, reaching 0.8 • C over Sudan and northern Ethiopia. This implies that the Greater Horn of Africa will warm faster than the global mean.While projected changes in precipitation are mostly uncertain across the Greater Horn of Africa, there is a substantial decrease over the central and northern parts of Ethiopia. Additionally, the length of dry and wet spells is projected to increase and decrease respectively. The combined effect of a reduction in rainfall and the changes in the wet and dry spells will likely impact negatively on the livelihoods of people within the coastal cities, lake regions, highlands as well as arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia, Ethiopia and Sudan. The probable impacts of these changes on key sectors such as agriculture, water, energy and health sectors, will likely call for formulation of actionable policies geared towards adaptation and mitigation of the impacts of 1.5 • C and 2 • C warming.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Osima

Indasi

Zaroug

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

111

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As a result, hot extremes will become more common and deadly in many regions across the world (Gasparrini et al, 2017;Im et al, 2017;Lee & Kim, 2016;Mora et al, 2017) and in tropical Africa (Giorgi et al, 2014;Liu et al, 2017;Russo et al, 2014), with their frequency, duration, and magnitude depending on the underlying forcing scenario (Anderson et al, 2018;Dosio, 2017;Linares et al, 2014;Russo et al, 2016). Such hot extremes can have widespread impacts on human and natural systems, thereby challenging the adaptive capacity and resilience of local populations and activities (Ceccherini et al, 2017;Fontaine et al, 2013;Pal & Eltahir, 2016;Sultan & Gaetani, 2016;Zougmoré et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

et al. 2018

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Heat and discomfort indices are applied to the multimodel ensemble mean of COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment-Africa regional climate model projections to investigate future changes in heat stress and the proportion of human population at risk under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming scenarios over West Africa. The results show that heat stress of category Extreme Caution is projected to extend spatially (up to 25%) over most of the Gulf of Guinea, Sahel, and Sahara desert areas, with different regional coverage during the various seasons. Similarly, the projected seasonal proportion of human population at discomfort substantially increases to more than 50% over most of the region. In particular, in June-August over the Sahel and the western Sahara desert, new areas (15% of West Africa) where most of the population is at risk emerge. This indicates that from 50% to almost everyone over most of the Sahel countries and part of the western Sahara desert is at risk of possible heat cramp, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke in future climate scenarios. These conditions become more frequent and are accompanied by the emergence of days with dangerous heat stress category during which everyone feels discomfort and is vulnerable to a likely heat cramp and heat exhaustion. In general, all the above features are more extended and more frequent in the 2°C than in the 1.5°C scenario. Protective measures are thus required for outdoor workers, occupational settings in hot environments, and people engaged in strenuous activities.

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“…In addition, the minimum temperature increases more rapidly than the maximum temperature, thus involving a reduction of the diurnal variation in temperature. The predictions of models based on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios showed that the global warming continues to increase (Ceccherini et al, 2017;Sylla et al, 2016;Giorgi et al, 2014;Boko et al, 2007). However, these temperature changes are not uniform.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future evolution of surface temperature extremes and the potential impacts on the human health in Senegal

Sarr¹,

Diba²,

Basse³

et al. 2019

Afr. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Climate change impacts negatively vulnerable regions such as West African countries like Senegal, through an increase of climate extremes. The objectives of this study is to analyze the future evolution of the extreme temperature events and their impacts on human health in Senegal during the cold (DJF), hot (MAM) and wet seasons (JAS) under the greenhouse gas scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using Climate projections of five (5) regional climate models (RCMs) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) program. The results show that the biases of the RCMs are globally low especially their ensemble mean of the RCMs. This ensemble mean was afterwards considered in the analysis of the climate extremes in the near (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100). When considering the near future, the frequency of the hot nights (Tn90p) increases under the scenario RCP8.5 (up to 90%) during the rainy season in the south of the country. As for the percentage of the hot days (Tx90p), it may reach approximately 70% under the scenario RCP8.5 in DJF over the majority of the country. Moreover, a strong increase of Tn90p and Tx90p is also diagnosed during the far future with values exceeding 80% over most parts of the country. Concerning the evolution of the heat wave magnitude index-daily, the ensemble mean of all models shows that the heat waves are more severe in MAM and JAS under both scenarios during the near and the far future over most parts of the country. To estimate the potential impacts of this heat stress on the human health, the heat index and the humidex are used. The analysis of the heat index shows that the sanitary risks are more perceptible over the whole country during the rainy season with values reaching the symptom band II for both scenarios during the far future. As for the humidex, it is characterized by a gradual increase from the historical period to the far future. This analysis highlights the fact that appropriate adaptation measures should be considered to tackle efficiently the increase of temperature extremes which may impact negatively the human health.

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Heat waves in Africa 1981–2015, observations and reanalysis

Cited by 103 publications

References 18 publications

Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

Future evolution of surface temperature extremes and the potential impacts on the human health in Senegal

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