Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.
The marine fisheries catches of Malta were reconstructed for the period 1950-2014, including for reported and previously unreported commercial large- and small-scale catches, unmonitored fisheries catches, i.e., subsistence and recreational fisheries, as well as major discards. The present study updates and improves a previous catch reconstruction for Malta for the 1950-2010 time period. Reconstructed marine fisheries catches for Malta are nearly 1.3 times the official landings reported by the FAO and national authorities on behalf of Malta, increasing from around 1,200 t·year-1 in the 1950s to 3,700 t·year-1 in the 2010s. The discrepancy between reported and reconstructed total catches is mostly due to the subsistence catches estimated, which here consist exclusively of on-board consumption and take-home catch of commercial fishers. While the Maltese fisheries statistical system includes procedures to estimate ‘unmonitored’ commercial landings, this contribution documents that it would be beneficial to also account for non-commercial catches.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.