Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf

Abstract

Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.

Identifying potentially invasive non‐native marine and brackish water species for the Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman

“…number of screened species), which was recently estimated at n = 15-20 . For the purposes of this study, with regard to the CCA component of the screening process, current predictions for the RSA suggest an increase in SST between 0.5 and 1.4°C and salinity increases of up to 18 ppt by F I G U R E 1 Map of the study (risk assessment) area, the Regional Organization for Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) Sea Area showing the Inner and Middle Sea Areas which were the focus of this study 2050 Wabnitz et al, 2018). The assessors used this scenario to provide a consistent outlook on the provision of CCA scoring.…”

“…number of screened species), which was recently estimated at n = 15–20 (Vilizzi et al, ). For the purposes of this study, with regard to the CCA component of the screening process, current predictions for the RSA suggest an increase in SST between 0.5 and 1.4°C and salinity increases of up to 18 ppt by 2050 (Vaughan et al, ; Wabnitz et al, ). The assessors used this scenario to provide a consistent outlook on the provision of CCA scoring.…”

“…The RSA, which is bordered by the countries of Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has unique environmental features, including a marine environment characterized by extreme oceanographic and meteorological conditions (Riefl et al, 2012;Sale et al, 2011;Van Lavieren et al, 2011;Vaughan, Al-Mansoori, & Burt, 2019). Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the RSA regularly exceed 37°C during the extreme summer months (Paparella, Xu, Vaughan, & Burt, 2019), and mean salinity is 42 ppt, with >50 ppt common in the south and up to 70 ppt in coastal lagoons Wabnitz et al, 2018).…”

Impact of Climate Change to Tourism Sector in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

“…Salinity probably has more impact in the coastal low and flat regions. The consequences of salinity are loss of biodiversity and changes in livelihoods (Wabnitz et al, 2018) due to damage of rice farms, fruit gardens and ground water (Neffati, Sriti, Hamdaoui, Kchouk, & Marzouk, 2011).…”

Protecting The Marine Environment Of Vital Maritime Passageways

“…The Persian Gulf is rich in marine biodiversity. A wide variety of marine life is found in the Gulf, including sea turtles, marine birds, dugongs, whales, dolphins and over 500 fish species (Wabnitz et al, 2018). These animals are endemic to the Gulf and rely heavily on its environment for their survival.…”