The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5–7°C between the 1961–1990 reference period and the period 2070–2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe – Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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The Project

The Project

Abstract. Data collected during the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) at four different forest stands were used to test surface energy and carbon fluxes simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). These stands included deciduous and conifer species and were located in both the BOREAS northern and southern study areas. Two runs were made: one using the original IBIS model and the other using a version modified to consider an organic soil layer (OSL) covering the mineral soil surface. Results show that the inclusion of the OSL substantially improved the simulation of soil heat flux, as well as of temperature and moisture in the topmost soil layer. Simulations show that latent and sensible heat fluxes, and net ecosystem exchange of carbon, were not affected appreciably by the presence of a thin (10 cm or less) OSL covering the forest floor. With a thick (50 cm) OSL, however, simulation of latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of carbon was substantially improved. Consideration of the OSL in the model also led to better simulation of the onsets of soil thawing. Correct estimation of heat diffusion to deep soil through thick organic layers requires a parameterization that accounts for the state of the organic material decomposition. Simulations presented here also show the necessity for using detailed information on soil physical properties for better evaluation of model performance.

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