Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

Lelieveld, Jos; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Κωστοπούλου, Ε.; Chenoweth, Jonathan; Maayar, Mustapha El; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Hannides, Cecelia C. S.; Lange, Manfred A.; Tanarhte, Meryem; Tyrlis, Evangelos; Xoplaki, Elena

doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4

Cited by 499 publications

(341 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(40 reference statements)

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“…Specifically, most climatic models project that drylands located in China are expected to see an increase in total rainfall amounts by 10-20%, but precipitation will be reduced by 5-30% in large portions of the drylands in the Americas, Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean Basin [30]. However, regional models predict important localscale variations superimposed upon these overall trends [31][32][33]. Even in areas where precipitation will increase, the expected rise in temperature will increase evapotranspiration rates, which may cancel out the expected positive effects of enhanced precipitation on soil moisture and ecosystem productivity.…”

Section: Global Environmental Change Effects On Drylandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands

Maestre

Salguero‐Gómez

Quero

2012

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

264

209

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Drylands occupy large portions of the Earth, and are a key terrestrial biome from the socio-ecological point of view. In spite of their extent and importance, the impacts of global environmental change on them remain poorly understood. In this introduction, we review some of the main expected impacts of global change in drylands, quantify research efforts on the topic, and highlight how the articles included in this theme issue contribute to fill current gaps in our knowledge. Our literature analyses identify key under-studied areas that need more research (e.g. countries such as Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Somalia, and deserts such as the Thar, Kavir and Taklamakan), and indicate that most global change research carried out to date in drylands has been done on a unidisciplinary basis. The contributions included here use a wide array of organisms (from micro-organisms to humans), spatial scales (from local to global) and topics (from plant demography to poverty alleviation) to examine key issues to the socio-ecological impacts of global change in drylands. These papers highlight the complexities and difficulties associated with the prediction of such impacts. They also identify the increased use of long-term experiments and multidisciplinary approaches as priority areas for future dryland research. Major advances in our ability to predict and understand global change impacts on drylands can be achieved by explicitly considering how the responses of individuals, populations and communities will in turn affect ecosystem services. Future research should explore linkages between these responses and their effects on water and climate, as well as the provisioning of services for human development and well-being.

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Section: Global Environmental Change Effects On Drylandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands

Maestre

Salguero‐Gómez

Quero

2012

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

264

209

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“…Recently, a comprehensive analysis of climate extremes, based on the 27 Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the entire Arabian region, indicated a consistent warming trend with an increase in the occurrence of warm days and nights, fewer cold days and nights, shorter cold spells, and higher extreme temperature values (Donat et al 2013). In a recent analysis, Lelieveld et al (2012) concluded that the heating across the region of the eastern Mediterranean to the Arabian Peninsula is more prominent. Summer temperature in the region are expected to rise by up to 10°C, coupled with prolonged heat waves in selected population centers .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

Cheng

Saleem

Sadr

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

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The objective of this study was to analyze longterm temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period , using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

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“…Given the aforementioned local and remote effects of the Mediterranean circulation and its teleconnections, the development of indices describing the EMME circulation would be beneficial for the understanding of the present and future climate of the region, which is projected to be a climate change 'hot spot' (Giorgi 2006;Lelieveld et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The summer circulation over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East: influence of the South Asian monsoon

2012

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The summer circulation over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is dominated by persistent northerly winds (Etesians) whose ventilating effect counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by large scale subsidence. The ERA40 dataset is used to study the vertical distribution of these circulation features, which both appear to be reconciled manifestations of the South Asian monsoon influence. As predicted by past idealized modeling studies, in late spring a westward expanding upper level warm structure and subsidence areas are associated with Rossby waves excited by the monsoon convection. Steep sloping isentropes that develop over the EMME facilitate further subsidence on the western and northern periphery of the warm structure, which is exposed to the midlatitude westerlies. The northerly flow and descent over the eastern Mediterranean have maxima in July that are strikingly synchronous to the monsoon convection over northern India, where the weaker easterly jet favors a stronger Rossby wave response and consequent impact on the EMME circulation. The pronounced EMME topography modifies the monsoon induced structure, firstly, by inducing orographically locked summer anticyclones. These enhance the mid and low level northwesterly flow at their eastern flanks, leading to distinct subsidence maxima over the eastern Mediterranean and Iran. Secondly, topography amplifies the subsidence and the northerly flow over the Aegean, Red Sea, the Iraq-Gulf region and to the east of the Caspian Sea.

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Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

Cited by 499 publications

References 38 publications

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands

Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

The summer circulation over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East: influence of the South Asian monsoon

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