Introduction: The consequences of climate change have been considerably high to smallholders in most of Sub-Saharan Africa. These impacts have been more enormous to crop production and other attached livelihoods. However, the comprehensive assessment of these impacts has suffered numerous challenges because crop productivity is also susceptible to other factors involved in the production process. This study aimed to understand how crop yields are affected by climate change in the semiarid zone of Tanzania. The findings would establish a thorough literature within smallholder adaptation in the area. Furthermore, they will intensify strategies to cope with reduced yields attributed by climate-change impacts. Outcomes: There has been a dramatic decrease in rainfall (R 2 = 0.21) and increase in temperature (R 2 = 0.30). In addition, we found that rainfall and temperature variability had positive (R 2~0 .5) and negative (R 2~0 .3) correlations with crop yields, respectively. Discussion: The decline in yields at both local and national levels elevated the magnitude of food shortage and poverty. The increasing climate impacts necessitate undertakings of various studies to plan, design, recommend, and implement various useful adaptation measures, especially in the vulnerable communities. Conclusion: To limit climate effects, we need to increase investments in adaptation and mitigation measures.

Abstract:Although various climate models, statistical crop models and economic simulations have been established to determine the level of farmers' vulnerability, there has been little systematic assessment of farmers' perception towards climate change in association with meteorological analyses and policy implications in Tanzania. The results from this assessment will enhance the formation of robust policies that improve resilient livelihoods and the capacity to adapt to climate change and variability. This paper seeks to (i) reveal the farmers' perception on variation, change of rainfall, and temperature in the Tanzanian semi-arid area; (ii) depict meteorological evidence for the perceived rainfall and temperature changes; (iii) assess the policy perception and responses for the changing climate; and (iv) discuss the correlation between farmers' perception and meteorological data. Household surveys, informative interviews and discussions were employed during data collection. The Mann-Kendall Test and SPSS (version 20) were used for climate data analyses, while qualitative data were thematically analyzed. The results showed that from 1980 to 2015 the mean annual rainfall decreased ( R 2 = 0.21) while temperature increased (R 2 = 0.30). Even though majority farmers agreed with these results, they had not yet taken serious measures to curb the situation. Besides, Agricultural Policy has lightly addressed and enforced the implementations of adaptation strategies to reduce climate impacts and vulnerability. Thereby, creation of awareness and intensification of climate adaptation strategies is needed at both farm and policy level.

While Tanzania has been facing food shortage for some decades, little efforts have been made to elicit optimal crop yields. To limit this problem, there is a need for a robust agricultural policy that aims at stabilizing agricultural production and socio-economic entitlement among the farmers. The present study analyses the production trend of maize, sorghum and millet (i.e., staple food crops) under rain fed agriculture in Kongwa District, the semi-arid agro-ecological zone of Central Tanzania, and envisage their implications to food security and policy. We collected a set of crop data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. In addition, 400 respondents were sampled randomly in the study area during household survey while a series of interviews and discussions were conducted mostly basing on the expertise. The Mann-Kendall Test and Microsoft excel (window 13) and theme content methods were employed for data analyses. The results showed that the production trends for maize, sorghum and millet yields have been decreasing at R 2 = 0.40, 0.35 and 0.11 respectively and this trend was supported by 80% of the respondents. This decrease was greatly influenced by the temporal decrease in the mean annual rainfall (R 2 = 0.21). The diminishing production trend has already decreased food security for 30% in the area. Since agricultural policy can be among the main sources of this poor yields, an explicit and sound agricultural policy should be the central aspect in planning and implementing agricultural activities.