The enhanced vegetation productivity driven by increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) [i.e., the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE)] sustains an important negative feedback on climate warming, but the temporal dynamics of CFE remain unclear. Using multiple long-term satellite- and ground-based datasets, we showed that global CFE has declined across most terrestrial regions of the globe from 1982 to 2015, correlating well with changing nutrient concentrations and availability of soil water. Current carbon cycle models also demonstrate a declining CFE trend, albeit one substantially weaker than that from the global observations. This declining trend in the forcing of terrestrial carbon sinks by increasing amounts of atmospheric CO2 implies a weakening negative feedback on the climatic system and increased societal dependence on future strategies to mitigate climate warming.

Abstract. Satellite retrievals of the column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) could help to improve carbon flux estimation due to their good spatial coverage. In this study, in order to assimilate the GOSAT (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite) XCO2 retrievals, the Global Carbon Assimilation System (GCAS) is upgraded with new assimilation algorithms, procedures, a localization scheme, and a higher assimilation parameter resolution. This upgraded system is referred to as GCASv2. Based on this new system, the global terrestrial ecosystem (BIO) and ocean (OCN) carbon fluxes from 1 May 2009 to 31 December 2015 are constrained using the GOSAT ACOS (Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space) XCO2 retrievals (Version 7.3). The posterior carbon fluxes from 2010 to 2015 are independently evaluated using CO2 observations from 52 surface flask sites. The results show that the posterior carbon fluxes could significantly improve the modeling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, with global mean bias decreases from a prior value of 1.6 ± 1.8 ppm to −0.5 ± 1.8 ppm. The uncertainty reduction (UR) of the global BIO flux is 17 %, and the highest monthly regional UR could reach 51 %. Globally, the mean annual BIO and OCN carbon sinks and their interannual variations inferred in this study are very close to the estimates of CarbonTracker 2017 (CT2017) during the study period, and the inferred mean atmospheric CO2 growth rate and its interannual changes are also very close to the observations. Regionally, over the northern lands, the strongest carbon sinks are seen in temperate North America, followed by Europe, boreal Asia, and temperate Asia; in the tropics, there are strong sinks in tropical South America and tropical Asia, but a very weak sink in Africa. This pattern is significantly different from the estimates of CT2017, but the estimated carbon sinks for each continent and some key regions like boreal Asia and the Amazon are comparable or within the range of previous bottom-up estimates. The inversion also changes the interannual variations in carbon fluxes in most TransCom land regions, which have a better relationship with the changes in severe drought area (SDA) or leaf area index (LAI), or are more consistent with previous estimates for the impact of drought. These results suggest that the GCASv2 system works well with the GOSAT XCO2 retrievals and shows good performance with respect to estimating the surface carbon fluxes; meanwhile, our results also indicate that the GOSAT XCO2 retrievals could help to better understand the interannual variations in regional carbon fluxes.

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Abstract. A global gridded net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 dataset is vital in global and regional carbon cycle studies. Top-down atmospheric inversion is one of the major methods to estimate the global NEE; however, the existing global NEE datasets generated through inversion from conventional CO2 observations have large uncertainties in places where observational data are sparse. Here, by assimilating the GOSAT ACOS v9 XCO2 product, we generate a 10-year (2010–2019) global monthly terrestrial NEE dataset using the Global Carbon Assimilation System, version 2 (GCASv2), which is named GCAS2021. It includes gridded (1∘×1∘), globally, latitudinally, and regionally aggregated prior and posterior NEE and ocean (OCN) fluxes and prescribed wildfire (FIRE) and fossil fuel and cement (FFC) carbon emissions. Globally, the decadal mean NEE is -3.73±0.52 PgC yr−1, with an interannual amplitude of 2.73 PgC yr−1. Combining the OCN flux and FIRE and FFC emissions, the net biosphere flux (NBE) and atmospheric growth rate (AGR) as well as their inter-annual variabilities (IAVs) agree well with the estimates of the Global Carbon Budget 2020. Regionally, our dataset shows that eastern North America, the Amazon, the Congo Basin, Europe, boreal forests, southern China, and Southeast Asia are carbon sinks, while the western United States, African grasslands, Brazilian plateaus, and parts of South Asia are carbon sources. In the TRANSCOM land regions, the NBEs of temperate N. America, northern Africa, and boreal Asia are between the estimates of CMS-Flux NBE 2020 and CT2019B, and those in temperate Asia, Europe, and Southeast Asia are consistent with CMS-Flux NBE 2020 but significantly different from CT2019B. In the RECCAP2 regions, except for Africa and South Asia, the NBEs are comparable with the latest bottom-up estimate of Ciais et al. (2021). Compared with previous studies, the IAVs and seasonal cycles of NEE of this dataset could clearly reflect the impacts of extreme climates and large-scale climate anomalies on the carbon flux. The evaluations also show that the posterior CO2 concentrations at remote sites and on a regional scale, as well as on vertical CO2 profiles in the Asia-Pacific region, are all consistent with independent CO2 measurements from surface flask and aircraft CO2 observations, indicating that this dataset captures surface carbon fluxes well. We believe that this dataset can contribute to regional- or national-scale carbon cycle and carbon neutrality assessment and carbon dynamics research. The dataset can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5829774 (Jiang, 2022).

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