This paper presents a methodology which allows demographic and economic forecasting models to be integrated in a consistent manner. By embedding a conventional static Leontief input-output model within an activity analysis framework, a number of interesting results are obtained. First, a new series of production, income, and employment multipliers is derived which offers considerable advantages over those currently in use. Second, partitioning the framework provides fresh insights into the complex relationships between demographic and economic variables. These developments in methodology are tested in a case study of Mersey side where an operational version of the framework is applied in a forecasting context.
At the regional level in-migrant and indigenous workers are likely t o have different income levels and consumption propensities. The effects that these differences have upon a local economy are explored within an extended input-output modeling framework. Two iterative input-output models, due to Miernyk et al. and Blackwell, are recast as systems of simultaneous equations and are shown to produce identical results. A detailed analysis is made of model structure and a method is outlined for the decomposition of income multipliers. Empirical versions of the two models, for Boulder and Cork, are reconstructed with data from the original studies and are used to make comparisons of the two local economies.
INTRODUCTIONThis paper falls into three sections. A t first, we look at demographic-economic forecasting models, and the import,snce of forecasting population within a demographic-economic context. Several different models, which deal with the important linkages and variables of personal consumption, migration, and unemployment in different ways, are reviewed. A solution to the joint problem of consumption and unemployment is offered that uses the technique of activity-commodity analysis. In the second section the capacity of activity-commodity analysis for offering analytic insights into demographic-economic interaction is discussed, and the relationship between three differmt types of income multiplier investigated. Lastly, we suggest a use of activity-commodity frameworks as contexts for control: the development of target and instrument variables, and their application in demographic-economic analysis, is introduced.
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