Demographic-Economic Forecasting within an Activity-Commodity Framework: Some Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology which allows demographic and economic forecasting models to be integrated in a consistent manner. By embedding a conventional static Leontief input-output model within an activity analysis framework, a number of interesting results are obtained. First, a new series of production, income, and employment multipliers is derived which offers considerable advantages over those currently in use. Second, partitioning the framework provides fresh insights into the complex relationships between demographic and economic variables. These developments in methodology are tested in a case study of Mersey side where an operational version of the framework is applied in a forecasting context.

Information systems for regional development planning: a state-of-the-art survey

“…Although many countries have amassed an incredibly large collection of regional and interregional information-systems, scientific analysis has tended to focus on the character of the models rather than on the regions which they were representing (compare Batey and Madden, 1981;Hewings, 1983;Massey and Meagan, 1979).…”

Post-staple bust: modeling economic effects of mine closures and post-mine demographic shifts in an arctic economy (Yukon)

“…One of the ways of incorporating these components is an activityÁ/commodity framework proposed by Batey and Madden (1981). This model (known as the Merseyside model) made the first step in differentiating between consumption patterns of employed and unemployed members of households, i.e.…”

“…Household-extended DEIO models [also known as Type IV IO models (Batey and Madden 1981;Trigg and Madden 1995)] take into account size, composition, economic activity, employment statuses, and consumption heterogeneity of households. One of the ways of incorporating these components is an activityÁ/commodity framework proposed by Batey and Madden (1981).…”

Emerging challenges in regional input-output analysis

“…In the last decade, however, some of the most important developments in the field have been in the direction of linking the input-output model with one or more other models (see Batey and Madden, 1981, 1983 for an excellent collection). This research has generated a new perspective on the input-output model; concerns about data collection, aggregation, accuracy and causality have had to be raised anew in the context of a larger, more encompassing analytical framework.…”