In this paper, we propose stationary covariance functions for processes that evolve temporally over a sphere, as well as cross-covariance functions for multivariate random fields defined over a sphere. For such processes, the great circle distance is the natural metric that should be used in order to describe spatial dependence. Given the mathematical difficulties for the construction of covariance functions for processes defined over spheres cross time, approximations of the state of nature have been proposed in the literature by using the Euclidean (based on map projections) and the chordal distances. We present several methods of construction based on the great circle distance and provide closed-form expressions for both spatio-temporal and multivariate cases. A simulation study assesses the discrepancy between the great circle distance, chordal distance and Euclidean distance based on a map projection both in terms of estimation and prediction in a space-time and a bivariate spatial setting, where the space is in this case the Earth. We revisit the analysis of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data and investigate differences in terms of estimation and prediction between the aforementioned distance-based approaches. Both simulation and real data highlight sensible differences in terms of estimation of the spatial scale parameter. As far as prediction is concerned, the differences can be appreciated only when the interpoint distances are large, as demonstrated by an illustrative example.
In the last years there has been a growing interest in the construction space-time covariance functions. However, effective estimation methods for these models are somehow unexplored. In this paper we propose a composite likelihood approach and a weighted variant for the space-time estimation problem.The proposed method can be a valid compromise between the computational burdens, induced by the use of a maximum likelihood approach, and the loss of efficiency induced by using a weighted least squares procedure. An identification criterion based on the composite likelihood is also introduced. The effectiveness of the proposed procedure is illustrated through an extensive simulation experiment, and by reanalising a data set on Irish wind speeds (Haslett and Raftery, 1989). We also address an important issue, which has been recently explored in the literature, on how to select an appropriate space-time model by accounting for the tradeoff between goodness-of-fit and model complexity.
We study estimation and prediction of Gaussian random fields with covariance models belonging to the generalized Wendland (GW) class, under fixed domain asymptotics. As for the Matérn case, this class allows for a continuous parameterization of smoothness of the underlying Gaussian random field, being additionally compactly supported. The paper is divided into three parts: first, we characterize the equivalence of two Gaussian measures with GW covariance function, and we provide sufficient conditions for the equivalence of two Gaussian measures with Matérn and GW covariance functions. In the second part, we establish strong consistency and asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the microergodic parameter associated to GW covariance model, under fixed domain asymptotics. The third part elucidates the consequences of our results in terms of (misspecified) best linear unbiased predictor, under fixed domain asymptotics. Our findings are illustrated through a simulation study: the former compares the finite sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimation of the microergodic parameter with the given asymptotic distribution. The latter compares the finitesample behavior of the prediction and its associated mean square error when using two equivalent Gaussian measures with Matérn and GW covariance models, using covariance tapering as benchmark.1 imsart-aos ver.
In the last years there has been a growing interest in proposing methods for estimating covariance functions for geostatistical data. Among these, maximum likelihood estimators have nice features when we deal with a Gaussian model. However maximum likelihood becomes impractical when the number of observations is very large. In this work we review some solutions and we contrast them in terms of loss of statistical efficiency and computational burden. Specifically we focus on three types of weighted composite likelihood functions based on pairs and we compare them with the method of covariance tapering. Asymptotics properties of the three estimation methods are derived. We illustrate the effectiveness of the methods through theoretical examples, simulation experiments and by analysing a data set on yearly total precipitation anomalies at weather stations in the United States.
The paper combines simple general methodologies to obtain new classes of matrix-valued covariance functions that have two important properties: (i) the domains of the compact support of the several components of the matrix-valued functions can vary between components; and (ii) the overall differentiability at the origin can also vary. These models exploit a class of functions called here the Wendland-Gneiting class; their use is illustrated via both a simulation study and an application to a North American bivariate dataset of precipitation and temperature. Because for this dataset, as for others, the empirical covariances exhibit a hole effect, the turning bands operator is extended to matrix-valued covariance functions so as to obtain matrix-valued covariance models with negative covariances.
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