Projections of future water shortages in the world's glaciated mountain ranges have grown increasingly dire. Although water modeling research has begun to examine changing environmental parameters, the inclusion of social scenarios has been very limited. Yet human water use and demand are vital for long-term adaptation, risk reduction, and resource allocation. Concerns about future water supplies are particularly pronounced on Peru's arid Pacific slope, where upstream glacier recession has been accompanied by rapid and water-intensive economic development. Models predict water shortages decades into the future, but conflicts have already arisen in Peru's Santa River watershed due to either real or perceived shortages. Modeled thresholds do not align well with historical realities and therefore suggest that a broader analysis of the combined natural and social drivers of change is needed to more effectively understand the hydrologic transformation taking place across the watershed. This article situates these new geographies of water and climate change in Peru within current global change research discussions to demonstrate how future coupled research models can inform broader scale questions of hydrologic change and water security across watersheds and regions. We provide a coupled historical analysis of glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, declining Santa River discharge, and alpine wetland contraction. We also examine various water withdrawal mechanisms, including smallholder agriculture, mining, potable water use, hydroelectric power generation, and coastal irrigation. We argue that both ecological change and societal forces will play vital roles in shaping the future of water resources and water governance in the region. Key Words: agriculture, climate change, coupled systems, hydrology, mining, Peru.Las proyecciones de futura escasez de agua en las cadenas montañosas glaciadas del mundo son cada vez más alarmantes. Aunque la investigación que trabaja en la modelización del agua ha comenzado a examinar los cambiantes parámetros ambientales, la inclusión de escenarios sociales ha estado muy limitada. Sin embargo, el uso humano del agua y la demanda son vitales para adaptación a largo plazo, reducción del riesgo y asignación de recursos. Las preocupaciones sobre los futuros suministros de agua son particularmente pronunciadas en lasáridas

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Wetlands (called bofedales in the Andes of Peru) are abundant and important components of many mountain ecosystems across the globe. They provide many benefits including water storage, high quality habitat, pasture, nutrient sinks and transformations, and carbon storage. The remote and rugged setting of mountain wetlands creates challenges for mapping, typically leading to misclassification and underestimates of wetland extent. We used multi-date, multi-sensor radar and optical imagery (Landsat TM/ PALSAR/RADARSAT-1/SRTM DEM-TPI) combined with ground truthing for mapping wetlands in Huascarán National Park, Peru. We mapped bofedales into major wetland types: 1) cushion plant peatlands, 2) cushion plant wet meadows, and 3) graminoid wet meadows with an overall accuracy of 92%. A fourth wetland type was found (graminoid peatlands) but was too rare to map accurately, thus it was combined with cushion peatland to form a single peatland class. Total wetland area mapped in the National Park is 38,444 ha, which is 11% of the park area. Peatlands were the most abundant wetland type occupying 6.3% of the park, followed by graminoid wet meadows (3.5%) and cushion wet meadows (1.3%). These maps will serve as the foundation for improved management, including restoration, and estimates of landscape carbon stocks.

Receding mountain glaciers affect the hydrology of downslope ecosystems with consequences for drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower production. Here we combined land cover derived from satellite imagery and other environmental data from the northern Peruvian Andes into a first differencing regression model to assess wetland hydrologic connectivity. Wetland area was considered the response variable and a variety of land cover, climatic, and stream discharge explanatory variables were tested to evaluate effects of possible hydrologic connectivity. The results indicate that there were two primary spatial driving forces of wetland change in Peru"s Cordillera Blanca from 1987 to 1995: 1) loss in glacier area was associated with increased wetland area, controlling for other factors; while 2) an increase in mean annual stream discharge in the previous 12 months increased wetland area. The general approach we used expands the ways that connectivity between landscape changes and hydrologic and ecosystem processes can be assessed.

The interactions between climate and land‐use change are dictating the distribution of flora and fauna and reshuffling biotic community composition around the world. Tropical mountains are particularly sensitive because they often have a high human population density, a long history of agriculture, range‐restricted species, and high‐beta diversity due to a steep elevation gradient. Here we evaluated the change in distribution of woody vegetation in the tropical Andes of South America for the period 2001–2014. For the analyses we created annual land‐cover/land‐use maps using MODIS satellite data at 250 m pixel resolution, calculated the cover of woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) in 9,274 hexagons of 115.47 km2, and then determined if there was a statistically significant (p < 0.05) 14 year linear trend (positive—forest gain, negative—forest loss) within each hexagon. Of the 1,308 hexagons with significant trends, 36.6% (n = 479) lost forests and 63.4% (n = 829) gained forests. We estimated an overall net gain of ~500,000 ha in woody vegetation. Forest loss dominated the 1,000–1,499 m elevation zone and forest gain dominated above 1,500 m. The most important transitions were forest loss at lower elevations for pastures and croplands, forest gain in abandoned pastures and cropland in mid‐elevation areas, and shrub encroachment into highland grasslands. Expert validation confirmed the observed trends, but some areas of apparent forest gain were associated with new shade coffee, pine, or eucalypt plantations. In addition, after controlling for elevation and country, forest gain was associated with a decline in the rural population. Although we document an overall gain in forest cover, the recent reversal of forest gains in Colombia demonstrates that these coupled natural‐human systems are highly dynamic and there is an urgent need of a regional real‐time land‐use, biodiversity, and ecosystem services monitoring network.