ABSTRACT. The tropical glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are rapidly retreating, resulting in complex impacts on the hydrology of the upper Río Santa watershed. The effect of this retreat on water resources is evaluated by analyzing historical and recent time series of daily discharge at nine measurement points. Using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, the significance of trends in three hydrograph parameters was studied. Results are interpreted using synthetic time series generated from a hydrologic model that calculates hydrographs based on glacier retreat sequences. The results suggest that seven of the nine study watersheds have probably crossed a critical transition point, and now exhibit decreasing dry-season discharge. Our results suggest also that once the glaciers completely melt, annual discharge will be lower than present by 2-30% depending on the watershed. The retreat influence on discharge will be more pronounced during the dry season than at other periods of the year. At La Balsa, which measures discharge from the upper Río Santa, the glacier retreat could lead to a decrease in dry-season average discharge of 30%.

The rapid retreat of the glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca is having a noticeable impact on the downstream hydrology. Although groundwater is a critical hydrologic component that sustains stream flows during the dry season, its characteristics and its contribution to downstream hydrology remain poorly understood. In this study, we analyse the hydrochemical and isotopic properties of potential hydrologic sources mixing in surface streams to characterize the proglacial hydrology in four glacially fed watersheds within the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Water samples from streams, glacial melt and groundwater were collected in 2008 and 2009 and analysed for major ions and stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H). Multivariate analysis of variance was used first to identify the hydrochemical and isotopic characteristics (tracers) of the water samples that depend primarily on the water source. Then several analyses, including hierarchical cluster analysis and mixing diagrams, were performed using these source‐dependent tracers, enabling a qualitative description of the key hydrological mechanisms that characterize the study watersheds. Finally, we applied a multi‐component spatial mixing model, the hydrochemical basin characterization method, to quantify the contributions of different water sources to the outflow from the four watersheds. The hydrochemical basin characterization method results show that groundwater is a major component of the discharge during the dry season and that the groundwater contribution to outflow is greater than 24% in all of the valleys. The results are used to develop a conceptual proglacial hydrological model of the Cordillera Blanca valleys. Talus and avalanche cones are identified as key components of the hydrology of the valleys. The talus deposits collect precipitation and runoff from higher elevations (approximately 400 m above the valley floor) and have a residence time that is long enough to actively release substantial volumes of water throughout the dry season. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are undergoing rapid retreat, in large part due to climate change. These changes are significantly altering water availability in the region and pose critical risks to local populations that are highly dependent on these resources for livelihoods. We examine these issues through an interdisciplinary and linked evaluation of hydrological change and livelihood vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed. Physical observations of the Yanamarey glacier show acceleration in frontal retreat at a rate of 8 m decade −1 since 1970, accompanied by total volume loss on the order of 0.022 km 3 . Hydrological and hydrochemical analyses document a possible transformation of stream flow over the past decade as the seasonal storage capacity of the glacier has degraded. Recent stream discharge measurements from the proglacial lake below the glacier are more coincident with the highly variable seasonal precipitation than they were during the 1998-1999 hydrological year. Local household perceptions of glacier recession and seasonal hydrological variability agree with this trend, which is increasing human vulnerability in the watershed. Household case-study survey results demonstrate that shifting water resources, increasing weather extremes and climate-related threats to tourism are all new vectors of vulnerability for household livelihoods.

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Projections of future water shortages in the world's glaciated mountain ranges have grown increasingly dire. Although water modeling research has begun to examine changing environmental parameters, the inclusion of social scenarios has been very limited. Yet human water use and demand are vital for long-term adaptation, risk reduction, and resource allocation. Concerns about future water supplies are particularly pronounced on Peru's arid Pacific slope, where upstream glacier recession has been accompanied by rapid and water-intensive economic development. Models predict water shortages decades into the future, but conflicts have already arisen in Peru's Santa River watershed due to either real or perceived shortages. Modeled thresholds do not align well with historical realities and therefore suggest that a broader analysis of the combined natural and social drivers of change is needed to more effectively understand the hydrologic transformation taking place across the watershed. This article situates these new geographies of water and climate change in Peru within current global change research discussions to demonstrate how future coupled research models can inform broader scale questions of hydrologic change and water security across watersheds and regions. We provide a coupled historical analysis of glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, declining Santa River discharge, and alpine wetland contraction. We also examine various water withdrawal mechanisms, including smallholder agriculture, mining, potable water use, hydroelectric power generation, and coastal irrigation. We argue that both ecological change and societal forces will play vital roles in shaping the future of water resources and water governance in the region. Key Words: agriculture, climate change, coupled systems, hydrology, mining, Peru.Las proyecciones de futura escasez de agua en las cadenas montañosas glaciadas del mundo son cada vez más alarmantes. Aunque la investigación que trabaja en la modelización del agua ha comenzado a examinar los cambiantes parámetros ambientales, la inclusión de escenarios sociales ha estado muy limitada. Sin embargo, el uso humano del agua y la demanda son vitales para adaptación a largo plazo, reducción del riesgo y asignación de recursos. Las preocupaciones sobre los futuros suministros de agua son particularmente pronunciadas en lasáridas

The retreat of glaciers in the tropics will have a significant impact on water resources. In order to overcome limitations with discontinuous to nonexistent hydrologic measurements in remote mountain watersheds, a hydrochemical and isotopic mass balance model is used to identify and characterize dry season water origins at the glacier fed Querococha basin located in southern Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Dry season water samples, collected intermittently between 1998 and 2007, were analyzed for major ions and the stable isotopes of water (δ¹⁸O and δ²H). The hydrochemical and isotopic data are analysed using conservative characteristics of selected tracers and relative contributions are calculated based on pre-identified contributing sources at mixing points sampled across the basin. The results show that during the dry-season, groundwater is the largest contributor to basin outflow and that the flux of groundwater is temporally variable. The groundwater contribution significantly correlates (P-value=0.004 to 0.044) to the antecedent precipitation regime at 3 and 18–36 months. Assuming this indicates a maximum of 4 years of precipitation accumulation in groundwater reserves, the Querococha watershed outflows are potentially vulnerable to multi-year droughts and climate related changes in the precipitation regime. The results show that the use of hydrochemical and isotopic data can contribute to hydrologic studies in remote, data poor regions, and that groundwater contribution to tropical proglacial hydrologic systems is a critical component of dry season discharge

A myriad of downstream communities and industries rely on streams fed by both groundwater discharge and glacier meltwater draining the Cordillera Blanca, Northern Peruvian Andes, which contains the highest density of glaciers in the tropics. During the dry season, approximately half the discharge in the region's proglacial streams comes from groundwater. However, because of the remote and difficult access to the region, there are few field methods that are effective at the reach scale to identify the spatial distribution of groundwater discharge. An energy balance model, Rhodamine WT dye tracing, and high‐definition kite‐borne imagery were used to determine gross and net groundwater inputs to a 4‐km reach of the Quilcay River in Huascaran National Park, Peru. The HFLUX computer programme (http://hydrology.syr.edu/hflux.html) was used to simulate the Quilcay River's energy balance using stream temperature observations, meteorological measurements, and kite‐borne areal photography. Inference from the model indicates 29% of stream discharge at the reach outlet was contributed by groundwater discharge over the study section. Rhodamine WT dye tracing results, coupled with the energy balance, show that approximately 49% of stream water is exchanged (no net gain) with the subsurface as gross gains and losses. The results suggest that gross gains from groundwater are largest in a moraine subreach but because of large gross losses, net gains are larger in the meadow subreaches. These insights into pathways of groundwater–surface water interaction can be applied to improve hydrological modelling in proglacial catchments throughout South America. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.