Toward hydro-social modeling: Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models (Santa River, Peru)

Carey, Mark; Baraër, Michel; Mark, Bryan G.; French, Adam; Bury, Jeffrey; Young, Kenneth R.; McKenzie, Jeffrey M.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.006

Cited by 107 publications

(122 citation statements)

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“…It is therefore indispensable to include socioeconomic, cultural, legal and political aspects of water use and regulations at all stages of future socio-hydrologic modeling attempts (e.g. Carey et al, 2014). In addition glacier retreat increases the potential for natural hazards, affects ecosystem composition in rivers downstream and may impact economic sectors such as tourism or mining.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Vuille

Carey

Huggel

et al. 2018

Earth-Science Reviews

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Glaciers in the tropical Andes have been retreating for the past several decades, leading to a temporary increase in dry season water supply downstream. Projected future glacier shrinkage, however, will lead to a long-term reduction in dry season river discharge from glacierized catchments. This glacier retreat is closely related to the observed increase in high-elevation, surface air temperature in the region. Future projections using a simple freezing level height-equilibrium-line altitude scaling approach suggest that glaciers in the inner tropics, such as Antizana in Ecuador, may be most vulnerable to future warming while glaciers in the more arid outer tropics, such as Zongo in Bolivia, may persist, albeit in a smaller size, throughout the 21st century regardless of emission scenario. Nonetheless many uncertainties persist, most notably problems with accurate snowfall measurements in the glacier accumulation zone, uncertainties in establishing accurate thickness measurements on glaciers, unknown future changes associated with local-scale circulation and cloud cover affecting glacier energy balance, the role of aerosols and in particular black carbon deposition on Andean glaciers, and the role of groundwater and aquifers interacting with glacier meltwater.The reduction in water supply for export-oriented agriculture, mining, hydropower production and human consumption are the most commonly discussed concerns associated with glacier retreat, but many other aspects including glacial hazards, tourism and recreation, and ecosystem integrity are also affected by glacier retreat. Social and political problems surrounding water allocation for subsistence farming have led to conflicts due to lack of adequate water governance. Local water management practices in many regions reflect cultural belief systems, perceptions and spiritual values and glacier retreat in some places is seen as a threat to these local livelihoods.Comprehensive adaptation strategies, if they are to be successful, therefore need to consider science, policy, culture and practice, and involve local populations. Planning needs to be based not only on future scenarios derived from physically-based numerical models, but must also consider societal needs, economic agendas, political conflicts, socioeconomic inequality and cultural values. This review elaborates on the need for adaptation as well as the challenges and constraints many adaptation projects are faced with, and lays out future directions where opportunities exist to develop successful, culturally acceptable and sustainable adaptation strategies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Vuille

Carey

Huggel

et al. 2018

Earth-Science Reviews

Self Cite

233

213

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“…Similarly, Racoviteanu et al (2008) calculated a 22.4 % glacier area reduction from 1970 to 2003, during which time the mean glacier terminus elevation increased by 113 m. Glacier changes are altering downstream hydrology, changing water supply in terms of quantity, quality and timing (Baraer et al, 2009(Baraer et al, , 2012Chevallier et al, 2011;Condom et al, 2011;Juen et al, 2007;Kaser et al, 2003;Rabatel et al, 2013). These changes have profound impacts on downstream communities, livelihoods and ecology (Bury et al, 2013(Bury et al, , 2011Carey et al, 2014;Mark et al, 2010;Postigo et al, 2008;Young, 2009Young, , 2014. Additionally, rapidly melting glaciers are increasing the number and volume of unstable proglacial lakes that present a serious natural hazard through potential glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) (Carey, 2008;Carey et al, 2012;Huggel et al, 2002;Lliboutry et al, 1977; O.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring tropical debris-covered glacier dynamics from high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Wigmore

Mark

2017

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. The glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are rapidly retreating and thinning as a result of climate change, altering the timing, quantity and quality of water available to downstream users. Furthermore, increases in the number and size of proglacial lakes associated with these melting glaciers is increasing potential exposure to glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Understanding how these glaciers are changing and their connection to proglacial lake systems is thus of critical importance. Most satellite data are too coarse for studying small mountain glaciers and are often affected by cloud cover, while traditional airborne photogrammetry and lidar are costly. Recent developments have made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) a viable and potentially transformative method for studying glacier change at high spatial resolution, on demand and at relatively low cost.Using a custom designed hexacopter built for high-altitude (4000-6000 m a.s.l.) operation, we completed repeat aerial surveys (2014 and 2015) of the debris-covered Llaca Glacier tongue and proglacial lake system. High-resolution orthomosaics (5 cm) and digital elevation models (DEMs) (10 cm) were produced and their accuracy assessed. Analysis of these datasets reveals highly heterogeneous patterns of glacier change. The most rapid areas of ice loss were associated with exposed ice cliffs and meltwater ponds on the glacier surface. Considerable subsidence and low surface velocities were also measured on the sediments within the pro-glacial lake, indicating the presence of extensive regions of buried ice and continued connection to the glacier tongue. Only limited horizontal retreat of the glacier tongue was observed, indicating that measurements of changes in aerial extent alone are inadequate for monitoring changes in glacier ice quantity.

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“…Glacier contribution definitely has a considerable effect on the runoff of the Río Santa during the dry season (Bury et al, 2013;Carey et al, 2014) and even more so on the tributaries draining the Cordillera Blanca. Both ancient and modern channel systems have witnessed the sophisticated use of river water for agriculture and other needs (Bury et al, 2013;Gelles, 2001).…”

Section: Introduction -Considering Different Perspectives On a Complementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both ancient and modern channel systems have witnessed the sophisticated use of river water for agriculture and other needs (Bury et al, 2013;Gelles, 2001). Many studies were dedicated to the impact of glaciers on runoff and water availability in the region (Baraer et al, 2012;Carey et al, 2014;Mark et al, 2010). The increasing knowledge of human-caused climate warming and resulting impacts has attracted much attention in the region up to now (Baraer et al, 2012;Bury et al, 2013;Carey, 2010;Carey et al, 2014;Chevallier et al, 2011;Juen et al, 2007;Mark et al, 2010;Vuille et al, 2008) and, among other interests, our interdisciplinary research team also focuses on this issue.…”

Section: Introduction -Considering Different Perspectives On a Complementioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing peasants' perceptions of precipitation change with precipitation records in the tropical Callejón de Huaylas, Peru

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Pronounced hygric seasonality determines the regional climate and, thus, the characteristics of rainfed agriculture in the Peruvian Callejón de Huaylas (Cordillera Blanca). Peasants in the Cuenca Auqui on the eastern slopes above the city of Huaraz attribute recently experienced challenges in agricultural production mainly to perceived changes in precipitation patterns. Statistical analyses of daily precipitation records at nearby Recuay (1964Recuay ( to 2013 and Huaraz (1996 to 2013) stations do not corroborate the perceived changes. Either insufficient temporal resolution of available precipitation records or other environmental and sociopolitical factors impacting traditional farming methods may be the reason for the lack of concordance between the two information sources investigated in this study.

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Toward hydro-social modeling: Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models (Santa River, Peru)

Cited by 107 publications

References 59 publications

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Monitoring tropical debris-covered glacier dynamics from high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Comparing peasants' perceptions of precipitation change with precipitation records in the tropical Callejón de Huaylas, Peru

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