Summary Background Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. Methods We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. Findings Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13–1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11–7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5–28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4–39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98–1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16–8·20) deaths and 200 million (185–214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3–21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. Interpretation In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. Funding Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEWThe GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEThe results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Summary Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05–10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27–6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53–4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06–2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71–0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27–1·58) deaths per 1...

BackgroundCaesarean section (CS) has been on the rise worldwide and Bangladesh is no exception. In Bangladesh, the CS rate, which includes both institutional and community-based deliveries, has increased from about 3% in 2000 to about 24% in 2014. This study examines the association of reported complications around delivery and socio-demographic, healthcare and spatial characteristics of mothers with CS, using data from the latest Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS).MethodsThe study is based on data from the 2014 BDHS. BDHS is a nationally representative survey which is conducted periodically and 2014 is the latest of the BDHS conducted. Data collected from 4,627 mothers who gave birth in health care institutions in three years preceding the survey were used in this study.ResultsAverage age of the mothers was 24.6 years, while their average years of schooling were 3.2. Factors like mother being older, obese, residing in urban areas, first birth, maternal perception of large newborn size, husband being a professional, had higher number of antenatal care (ANC) visits, seeking ANC from private providers, and delivering in a private facility were statistically associated with higher rates of CS.ConclusionsBangladesh health system urgently needs policy guideline with monitoring of clinical indications of CS deliveries to avoid unnecessary CS. Strict adherence to this guideline, along with enhance knowledge on the unsafe nature of the unnecessary CS can achieve increased institutional normal delivery in future; otherwise, an emergency procedure may end up being a lucrative practice.

Like other developing countries, Nepal is currently going through epidemiological transition along with rising burden of Non-communicable Diseases. However, since 2013, no study investigated the prevalence and determinants of hypertension in Nepal involving nationally representative sample. Therefore, this study aimed to find out the current prevalence of hypertension in Nepal and its determinants using the latest nationally representative data obtained from Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) 2016. The NDHS 2016 collected data on hypertension from 13,304 men and women aged 18 years and above from 5,520 urban and 5,970 rural households covering seven administrative provinces and three ecological zones. Participants were considered as hypertensive when their systolic blood pressure was ≥140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure was ≥90 mmHg and/or they reported taking antihypertensive medication. A total of 19.9% study participants were diagnosed as hypertensive of which majority were male (male-24.3%, female-16.9%), ever married (ever married-21.7%, unmarried-6.1%) and residents of urban area (urban-20.9%, rural-18.3%). Hypertension prevalence has shown growing trend with the increase of age. This prevalence was also higher among rich and overweight/obese individuals. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, older age, male gender, better education, residence at urban area and province 4 and 5 and being overweight/obese were found positive association with having hypertension. When the determinants of hypertension were stratified by sex of the participants, difference was observed in case of age group, education and place of residence. As one out of every five individuals in Nepal are hypertensive, public health initiatives are immediately required for prevention and control of hypertension to reduce mortality and morbidity associated with this progressive disease.

BackgroundCesarean Section (CS) delivery has been increasing rapidly worldwide and Bangladesh is no exception. In Bangladesh, the CS rate has increased from about 3% in 2000 to about 24% in 2014. This study examines trend in CS in Bangladesh over the last fifteen years and implications of this increasing CS rates on health care expenditures.MethodsBirth data from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) for the years 2000–2014 have been used for the trend analysis and 2010 Bangladesh Maternal Mortality Survey (BMMS) data were used for estimating health care expenditure associated with CS.ResultsAlthough the share of institutional deliveries increased four times over the years 2000 to 2014, the CS deliveries increased eightfold. In 2000, only 33% of institutional deliveries were conducted through CS and the rate increased to 63% in 2014. Average medical care expenditure for a CS delivery in Bangladesh was about BDT 22,085 (USD 276) in 2010 while the cost of a normal delivery was BDT 3,565 (USD 45). Health care expenditure due to CS deliveries accounted for about 66.5% of total expenditure on all deliveries in Bangladesh in 2010. About 10.3% of Total Health Expenditure (THE) in 2010 was due to delivery costs, while CS costs contribute to 6.9% of THE and rapid increase in CS deliveries will mean that delivering babies will represent even a higher proportion of THE in the future despite declining crude birth rate.ConclusionHigh CS delivery rate and the negative health outcomes associated with the procedure on mothers and child births incur huge economic burden on the families. This is creating inappropriate allocation of scarce resources in the poor economy like Bangladesh. Therefore it is important to control this unnecessary CS practices by the health providers by introducing litigation and special guidelines in the health policy.

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7–8·8) or $1132 (1119–1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5–0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0–25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448–1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretatio...

IntroductionAntenatal care (ANC) has long been considered a critical component of the continuum of care during pregnancy, with the potential to contribute to the survival and thriving of women and newborns. Although ANC utilization has increased in over the past decades, adequate coverage and content of ANC contacts have fallen under increased scrutiny. The objectives of this article are to describe the coverage and content of ANC contacts in the context of rural Bangladesh.MethodsA community-based, cross-sectional household survey was conducted in two sub-districts of Netrokona district, Bangladesh in 2016. A total of 737 women with a recent birth outcome were interviewed. Respondents reported on the ANC contacts and the content of these contacts. Descriptive statistics were used to report coverage and content of ANC contacts stratified by covariates. Chi-square tests were performed to explore whether the estimates are different among different categories and significant differences were reported at p<0.05.ResultsAround 25% of women attended at least four ANC contacts, with only 11% initiating ANC in the first trimester of pregnancy. Blood pressure was measured in almost all of the ANC contacts (92%), and abdominal examination performed in 80% and weight measured in 85% of ANC contacts. Urine tests were conducted in less than half of the ANC contacts, whereas blood screening tests and ultrasound were conducted in 45% contacts. Health care providers counselled women on danger signs in only 66% of the ANC contacts. Overall, the content of facility-based ANC contacts were better than home-based ANC contacts across all components.ConclusionsAdequate coverage of ANC remains poor in Netrokona, Bangladesh and important gaps remain in the content of ANC contacts when women attend these services.