Studies of elections in young democracies point to the risk of elections intensifying existing social conflicts, a process observed in Indonesia in recent years. The 2017 mayoral election in Yogyakarta contradicts this trend, presenting an empirical puzzle. Despite the fact that local conditions might encourage electoral mobilization along sectarian lines, we find evidence of restraint. Based on analysis of the contents of sermons in 12 mosques and churches in the month before the election we identify three factors that discourage religious leaders from exercising opportunities to intensify religious tension. These include (a) elites were not motivated to exacerbate communal tension because they do not feel the election will bring about reform or change that would seriously affect their established position, (b) even though sectarian messaging is possible, the elites did not believe masses could be easily persuaded by sectarian political messaging, and (c) political outbidding by using sectarian messages would risk confronting the local dominant culture of harmony. These findings suggest that several factors need to be activated for religious leaders to exercise their moral authority over worshippers for political purposes. The presence of an opportunity structure for intensifying sectarian conflict is not sufficient for that conflict to emerge.
This paper addresses the issue of youth succeptability to radicalization that has been a major concern since report finding suggesting high number of youth support and participation in radical group. Using political opportunity theory in social movement studies, this paper discusses the macro context of radicalization among youth. It shows that changes of social and political landscape in Indonesia has motivated the shift of focus of Islamist movement toward mobilization at the social level as an alternative to failing political activism in parliament. In addition to this macro context, this paper illustrates the forms of social millie in schools that are critical to radicalization in schools. It concludes that the key to radicalization in school does not parimarily lay in religious teaching curricullum, but on condition and activities outside classroom that allow transmision of radical naratives among students.Banyaknya anggota kelompok radikal yang berusia muda memunculkan pertanyaan tentang kerentanan pengaruh ideologi radikal di kalangan anak muda. Tulisan ini menjelaskan konteks makro berupa lanskap sosial-politik di Indonesia yang memungkinkan terjadinya transmisi ideologi radikal di kalangan anak muda. Menggunakan teori gerakan sosial, konteks makro ini diidentifikasi sebagai struktur peluang politik (political opportunity structure) yang memberi ruang bagi mobilisasi
pada Pemilu tahun 2009, dan 9 partai diantaranya saya anggap sebagai representasi partai Islam karena mengandalkanbasis kekuatan suara umat Islam (ada hubungan afiliasi ormas Islam).
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