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Climate change is likely to have profound economic consequences for Egypt. This study evaluates the potential economic impacts resulting from changes in water supplies, agriculture, air quality, heat stress, and tourism. Other sensitive sectors, including water pollution, energy consumption, and biodiversity, were not assessed. Sea level rise threatens agricultural land and property in the Nile Delta. Higher temperatures can reduce agricultural production, a situation that can be made worse with lower water supplies. As a result, unemployment and food prices may increase, risking increased malnutrition. Human health in Cairo could be adversely affected by increased particulate matter and heat stress, potentially leading to thousands of deaths valued at tens of billions of Egyptian pounds per year. Annual tourist revenues are estimated to decrease as well. Total economic losses for the sectors mentioned above are estimated to reach ~200 to 350 billion Egyptian pounds (EGP; US $36−64 billion), which is equivalent to 2−6% of future gross domestic product. KEY WORDS: Climate change • Egypt • Economy Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher 2.2. Climate change scenarios The scenarios are from Elshamy et al. (2009), who used the A1B emissions scenario (IPCC) to estimate Blue Nile flow. We selected 3 GCMs from Els hamy et al. (2009) that presented the highest, lowest, and intermediate flow levels across the model results. The average change estimated across the 17 models in Elshamy et al. (2009) is a small decrease in flow. The scenarios are (1) large decrease in flow: Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (Canada; CGCM63); (2) small decrease in flow: Max Planck Institute for Meteoro logy (Germany; ECHAM); (3) increase in flow: National Institute for Environmental Studies Medium Resolution (Japan; MIROC-M).We used the 'SimCLIM' tool (CLIMsystems 2011) to develop estimates of changes in temperature and precipitation for Cairo and the High Aswan Dam (HAD) due to climate change (Table 3).The SLR scenarios were developed by the Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) of the Ministry of Water Resources and Industry (Elshinnawy 2008). Elshinnawy (2008) used current SLR trends and estimates of acce lerated eustatic SLR from the IPCC (2007). Elshinnawy (2008) estimated re lative SLR, which includes subsidence in the Nile Delta (Elshinnawy 2008; see also Stanley 1990, Hassaan & Abdra bo 2013), for 3 sites on the Mediterranean in 2025, 2050, and 2075;we used the 2025 estimate for 2030 be cause the 2 periods are close in time. We used the 2075 estimate for 2060 be cause SLR may be much higher than estimated by the IPCC (2007) (e.g. Oppenheimer et al. 2007, Natio nal Research Council 2012. SLR scenarios are displayed in Table 4.

Sea level changes are typically caused by several natural phenomena, including ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. Global average sea level is expected to rise, through the twenty-first century, according to the IPCC projections by between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea level will significantly impact coastal area of the Nile Delta, consisting generally of lowland and is densely populated areas and accommodates significant proportion of Egypt's economic activities and built-up areas. The Nile Delta has been examined in several previous studies, which worked under various hypothetical sea level rise (SLR) scenarios and provided different estimates of areas susceptible to inundation due to SLR. The paper intends, in this respect, to identify areas, as well as land use/land cover, susceptible to inundation by SLR based upon most recent scenarios of SLR, by the year 2100 using GIS. The results indicate that about 22.49, 42.18, and 49.22 % of the total area of coastal governorates of the Nile Delta would be susceptible to inundation under different scenarios of SLR. Also, it was found that 15.56 % of the total areas of the Nile Delta that would be vulnerable to inundation due to land subsidence only, even in the absence of any rise in sea level. Moreover, it was found that a considerable proportion of these areas (ranging between 32.32 and 53.66 %) are currently either wetland or undeveloped areas. Furthermore, natural and/or man-made structures, such as the banks of the International Coastal Highway, were found to provide unintended protection to some of these areas. This suggests that the inundation impact of SLR on the Nile Delta is less than previously reported.

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Malaria is one of the largest problems threatening global public health that is expected to increase in the future under climate change due to associated warming and wetter conditions. This will exacerbate disease burden in Burundi as one of sub-Saharan African countries, where 2 million cases of malaria were reported in 2015. This highlights the need for developing a methodology for mapping malaria risk under climate change and delineating those regions that may potentially experience malaria epidemics in the future. Malaria transmission and distribution are generally determined by a wide range of climatic, topographic and socioeconomic factors. The paper in hand is intended to map malaria risk in Burundi under climate change up to 2050. For this purpose, a GIS-based model was developed for mapping malaria as a function of various climatic and topographic determinants of malaria. The developed GIS-model was used in mapping malaria risk under current climatic conditions.